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Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance

Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
  • USD/CHF rebounds off key Gann level
  • Cycles favor a further rebound in the S&P 500
  • USD/JPY testing a major upside pivot

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_jpy_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF has rebounded further off the 7th square root progression of the year-the year-to-date high in the .9145 area
  • Subsequent strength through the 2nd square root progression of the August low at .9335 has shifted our near-term trend bias to positive
  • Immediate focus is on the 38% retracement of the July to August decline at .9375 with strength above needed to expose Gann points at .9405 and .9440
  • A couple of minor turn windows are seen over the next few days, but a more important window is eyed around the middle of next week
  • A confluence of Gann support levels near .9260 needs to be breached to undermine the burgeoning positive structure in the rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9260.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9260

0.9305

0.9365

0.9375

*0.9405

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

PT_jpy_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD traded to its lowest level since early July last week before rebounding sharply over the past few days
  • Strength over .7860 has turned the near-term trend bias to positive
  • A convergence of Gann and Fibonacci levels near.7940 suggests that this area is the next pivot of interest with a close above needed set up a further advance
  • A minor turn window is seen around the latter part of the week
  • The .7860 area is now support, but only weakness below the August low near .7720 will turn us negative on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Small longs favored while over .7720.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*0.7720

0.7860

0.7885

*0.7940

0.7990

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

PT_jpy_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 found support last week at the 2nd square root progression of the all time high in 1627 area
  • While below the 78.6% retracement of the August range at 1692 our trend bias will remain negative
  • The 1627 level remains a major downside pivot with weakness below needed to trigger material weakness
  • The short-term cyclical picture favors strength for at least a few days
  • Only a close over 1692 would improve the negative technical outlook

S&P 500 Strategy: Like the short side while below 1692. May look to add into the expected strength over the next few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

1616

*1627

1640

1658

*1692

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_jpy_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Testing Major Resistance

Key resistance for us in USD/JPY has been 99.45/65 as this area includes the 1x1 Gann angle line of the and the 4th square root progression of the year’s high (if we include the 61.8% retracement of the May to June decline we could say this resistance zone extends all the way to 99.95). While the exchange rate managed to trade above this zone on an intraday basis yesterday it wasn’t able to finish the day above these levels leaving us with lingering doubts about the latest move higher. For us, a close over this zone is really needed to signal an end to the consolidation period of the past few months and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. Failure to get over this zone on a closing basis by the end of the week would warn that the consolidation phase is not yet finished.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the JPY in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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