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Price & Time: The Cyclical Importance of Later This Week for the Euro

Price & Time: The Cyclical Importance of Later This Week for the Euro

2013-08-27 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Latter part of the week looks important for EUR/USD. Gold continues higher while USD/CAD approaches key resistance.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_euro_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: The Cyclical Importance of Later This Week for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under modest pressure since last week’s foray above the 1.3415 2Q13 high
  • While over the 2nd square root progression of the year-to-date high at 1.3220 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • The 1.3145 level remains a key upside pivot with a close above needed to confirm that a more important advance is underway
  • The second half of this week is a potential cycle turn window (see Focus Chart of the Day)
  • Weakness below 1.3220 would undermine the current positive tone and turn our outlook negative on the single currency

EUR/USD Strategy: Still square, but will go with a break of 1.3220 or 1.3415.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3220

1.3300

1.3345

*1.3415/30

1.3475

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_euro_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: The Cyclical Importance of Later This Week for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded to its highest level in over a month and a half last week before finding resistance at the 88.6% retracement of the July range in the 1.0565 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher while above the 2nd square root progression of the year’s high in the 1.0400 area
  • The 1.0665 levelis a minor near-term upside pivot with strength above needed to prompt a test of the more critical 1.0600 area
  • Early next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • Interemdiate-term support is seen near 1.0470, but only weakness below 1.0400 on a closing bias will turn the technical outlook more overtly negative

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.0400

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0400

1.0465

1.0530

1.0565

*1.0610

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_euro_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: The Cyclical Importance of Later This Week for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD closed above the psychologically important 1400 area on Monday and touched its highest levels since early June
  • Our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the metal while above 1350
  • The June high near 1424 is the next resistance of note ahead of the more critical barrier near 1440
  • The second half of the week is a clear cycle turn window for the metal
  • Weakness back under 1350 would undermine the immediate positive technical outlook

XAU/USD Strategy: Like holding long positions while above 1350.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1348

1384

1414

1424

*1441

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_euro_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: The Cyclical Importance of Later This Week for the Euro

The latter half of the week and the first few days of next week look important for the Euro from a cyclical perspective. In addition to some short-term cycle counts this timeframe marks a 261.8% extension of the time elapsed between the November 2009 and May 2011 peaks in the Euro. The time relationship has proven important in the past as the 161.8% extension coincided with the March 2012 high. Is EUR/USD guaranteed to turn during the upcoming time relationship? Of course not, but the price action should be monitored closely as we approach the end of the week especially if EUR/USD is approaching key levels at 1.3220 or 1.3415/30.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Euro in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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