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Price & Time: Gold Breaks 1400 So What Next?

Price & Time: Gold Breaks 1400 So What Next?

2013-08-26 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Gold takes out key levels while AUD/USD remains pinned down by important Gann resistance. USD/JPY up move stalls.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Gold_breaks_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Gold Breaks 1400 So What Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level in three weeks on Friday before encountering resistance near the 4th square root progression of the year-to-date high in the 99.25 area
  • The near-term trend bias is positive and will remain so while above 96.90
  • The 99.25 level is now a near-term upside pivot with traction above opening the way for a test of key resistance at 99.95
  • The latter half of this week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A confluence of Fibonacci retracements near 97.50 is intermediate support, but only weakness below last week’ low near 96.90 would alter the positive technical outlook in the rate

USD/JPY Strategy: like the long side whilst over 96.90.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

96.90

97.55

98.60

99.25

*99.95

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_Gold_breaks_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold Breaks 1400 So What Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD recovery off the 78.6% retracement of the month-to-date range at .8930 has been unimpressive
  • While over .8930 our near-term trend bias will remain positive
  • A move through Gann resistance at .9040 is deseperately needed to set up a more important move higher
  • However, medium-term cycle studies turn negative around the middle of the week
  • A close under .8930 will undermine the burgeoning postive structure and turn us negative on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Small longs favored while over .8930

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*0.8845

*0.8930

0.8930

*0.9040

0.9085

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/GBP

PT_Gold_breaks_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold Breaks 1400 So What Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/GBP has moved slowly higher since finding support a couple of weeks ago at the 4x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the .8500 area
  • While under the 4th square root progression of the year’s high near .8625 our near-term trend bias will remain lower in the cross
  • The .8530 area is a near downside pivot, but weakness below major support at around .8485 is really needed to set off a more important decline in the rate
  • Cycle studies suggest that the middle of the week is a likely turn window in the cross
  • A close over Gann resistance at .8625 will alter the negative technical outlook and focus higher

EUR/GBP Strategy: Only very small short positions favored while below .8625.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/GBP

*0.8485

0.8530

0.8585

*0.8625

0.8650

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_Gold_breaks_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold Breaks 1400 So What Next?

XAU/USD overcame more important resistance last week. The latest key level to give way was the 6th square root progression of the year’s low in the 1385 area. The weekly close over this level is potentially important and is further evidence that a more significant uptrend is in the making. Looking further out, the June high near 1424 is the next resistance point of note ahead of the all-important 161.8% projection of the July advance in the 1440 area. We doubt the metal will be able to test this resistance without backfilling, however, as we see cyclical headwinds getting stronger around the second half of the week.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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