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Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Flirting With An Important Upside Pivot

Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Flirting With An Important Upside Pivot

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Gold recovery continues while EUR/USD stalls near key resistance. USD/JPY still constructive.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_EUR_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Flirting With An Important Upside Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD managed to briefly overcome the 1.3415 2Q13 high this week
  • However, a convincing close over 1.3415/30 is needed to shift the broader trend to positive
  • Longer-term cycle studies suggest next week is a potential cycle turn window
  • Some intermediate Gann related support is seen around 1.3300
  • Only weakness under the 2nd square root progression of the month-to-date high at 1.3220 would suggest a reversal in trend and turn the outlook negative

Tactical EUR/USD Strategy: Still short against a weekly close over 1.3415.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3220

1.3300

1.3395

*1.3415/30

1.3480

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_EUR_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Flirting With An Important Upside Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY moved higher this week to test again resistance at the 5th square root progression of this year’s high in the 98.60 area
  • While over the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the rate
  • A close over 98.60 on a weekly basis is needed to confirm that an upside resumption is underway
  • The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • The 97.50 retracement confluence is intermediate support, but only aggressive weakness below the 2Q13 low on a multi-day closing basis would alter the broader postive prospects of the exchange rate

Tactical USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored against .9375.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*93.75

97.60

98.55

*98.60

99.55

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: Gold

WPT_EUR_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Flirting With An Important Upside Pivot

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD overcame key Gann resistance at 1384 and traded to its highest level in over 2-months this week
  • While over the 3rd square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1280 area our broader bias will remain positive on the metal
  • A weekly close over 1384 will be further evidence of a developing uptrend and exposes the 100% projection of the July advance at 1441
  • The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • The polarity principle suggests that 1350 is now important support, but only aggressive weakness below Gan support at 1280 would turn the broader technical outlook negative

Tactical Gold Strategy: We like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1280

1350

1396

1400

*1441

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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