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Price & Time: Watch AUD/USD Closely Over the Next Few Days

Price & Time: Watch AUD/USD Closely Over the Next Few Days

2013-08-20 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

The next couple of days are key for AUD/USD from a cyclical perspective. USD/CHF nears key support while USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

pt_a_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Watch AUD/USD Closely Over the Next Few Days

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY encountered strong resistance late last week at the 5th square root progression of the year’s high in the 98.65 area
  • However, while over 96.60 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • A Fibonacci cluster near 97.60 is interim resistance, but strength over 98.60 is really needed to set up a more important move higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen on Tuesday
  • Weakness below Gann support at 96.60 would undermine the positive structure in the rate and turn us negative

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 96.60

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

95.55

*96.60

97.25

97.60

*98.60

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

pt_a_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Watch AUD/USD Closely Over the Next Few Days

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF has come under renewed downside pressure to re-test the 1x2 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the .9180 area
  • Weakness below .9240 has shifted our near-term trend bias to negative in the rate
  • Key support resides at the 7th sqare root progression of the year’s high in the .9145 area with weakness below this level required to signal a broader shift in trend
  • A minor turn window is seen on Wednesday
  • Only over .9340 alleviates the immediate downside pressure and turns us positive on the rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like selling the rate on strength while below 9340.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9145

0.9175

0.9205

0.9270

*0.9340

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/GBP

pt_a_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Watch AUD/USD Closely Over the Next Few Days

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/GBP traded to its lowest level in almost a month and a half last week before finding support at the 4x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the .8500 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the cross and will continue to do so while below the 38% retracement of the month-to-date range in the .8605 area
  • A key convergence of Gann levels between .8600 and .8585 is key support with a clear breach of this area needed to force a more aggressive decline
  • The latter part of the week looks like a clear medium-term cycle turn window
  • A close back over .8605 would alter the negative technical outlook and turn us positive on the cross

EUR/GBP Strategy: Like the short side for a few more days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/GBP

*0.8485

*0.8500

0.8540

0.8580

*0.8605

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

pt_a_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Watch AUD/USD Closely Over the Next Few Days

Last week we remarked in this space about the potential importance of a Fibonacci time relationship between the early August low and several important lows of the past 4-years in AUD/USD. The shorter-term cyclical picture suggests the price action over the remainder of the week should be important in determining if the Aussie did indeed record a low of significance back on August 5th. If the rate is trying to turn higher then any remaining weakness should not last more than a couple of more days and hold well above key support around .8900. However, a close over resistance at .9300 is still required at some point to confirm that a more important move higher is underway. Weakness below .8900 on a closing basis would completely undermine the positive cyclical potential.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Aussie in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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