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Weekly Price & Time: Euro Nearing a Critical Level

Weekly Price & Time: Euro Nearing a Critical Level

2013-08-09 15:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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EUR/USD is nearing a major inflection point in price. USD/JPY broke a key support this week, but has some room before turning longer-term negative. Gold still languishing below 1350.

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Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

weekly_PT_aug_9_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Nearing a Critical Level

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD overcame a myriad of resistance in the 1.3300 area to trade to its highest levels since mid-June this week
  • Our medium-term trend bias remains lower in the Euro, but traction over the 1.3415 2Q13 high on a weekly closing basis will shift higher
  • Last week’s high near 1.3340 is interim support, but weakness below the 4th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3185 is really needed to reinvigorate the downside prospects
  • The second half of the month looks like the next turn window of importance for the single currency
  • The 1.3415 2Q13 high is very significant from a Gann perspective and a weekly close over this level will alter the broader negative picture in place since June

Tactical EUR/USD Strategy: Short against a weekly close above 1.3415.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3185

1.3340

1.3370

*1.3415

1.3480

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

weekly_PT_aug_9_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Nearing a Critical Level

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY broke below a key Gann/Fibonacci confluence around 97.60 this week to trade to its lowest level in 7-weeks
  • While over the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • The 97.60 area is now resistance and traction over this zone is needed to signal a a broader upside resumption
  • The second half of the month now looks like the next cycle turn window of importance
  • The 78.6% retracement near 95.50 important support and weakness below is likely to lead to a test of .9375 below which would turn us negative on USD/JPY

Tactical USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs still favored against .9375.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*93.75

95.50

96.25

97.10

*97.60

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: Gold

weekly_PT_aug_9_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Nearing a Critical Level

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under fairly steady pressure since failing near important Fibonacci symmetry in the 1350 area at the end of July
  • While below this level our medium-term trend bias will remain lower in the metal
  • The 4th square root progression of the July high near 1272 remains a key downside pivot with sustained weakness below this level needed to set off a more important decline
  • An important week long cycle turn window is seen around the end of next week
  • Strength over 1348 is needed to alter the negative cyclical picture and turn us positive on the metal.

Tactical Gold Strategy: We like tactical short positions in the metal while under 1348.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1250

*1272

1316

*1350

1372

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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