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Price & Time: Mixed Picture For USD Heading Into the Bernanke Testimony

Price & Time: Mixed Picture For USD Heading Into the Bernanke Testimony

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

PT_bernanke_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Mixed Picture For USD Heading Into the Bernanke Testimony

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY failed last week just below the 78.6% retracement of the May to June decline in the 101.55 area
  • Subsequent weakness from there has shifted the near-term trend bias to lower in the exchange rate
  • The 1x2 Gann angle line from the September 2012 low in the 98.85 area is key support and a close under this level is required to usher in a period of more sustained weakness
  • Near-term cycle studies are a bit muddled here, but Thursday and Tuesday look like potential minor turn windows
  • The 100.20 level is resistance and only traction above there undermines the immediate negative technical structure and turns us positive on the rate

Strategy: Like small short positions while below 100.20, but wary of a broader USD trend resumption commencing over the next few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

98.20

*98.85

99.65

*100.20

101.10

USD/CHF:

PT_bernanke_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Mixed Picture For USD Heading Into the Bernanke Testimony

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF failed last week at the 2x1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high in the .9750 area
  • The aggressive weakness that has followed has shifted our near-term trend bias to lower
  • A convergence of the 5th square root progression of the year-to-date high and the 2x1 Gann angle line of the 2012 high in the .9335 area is key support and must be breached if latest decline is to be taken mnore seriously
  • Near-term cycle studies suggest Wednesday is minor turn window
  • The .9540 area is key resistance and traction above is required to turn us positive on USD/CHF

Strategy: Only reduced short positions favored under .9540 as several cyclical techniques suggest the broader USD uptrend may attempt to reassert over the next couple of days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

0.9300

*0.9335

0.9395

0.9500

*0.9540

USD/CAD:

PT_bernanke_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Mixed Picture For USD Heading Into the Bernanke Testimony

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD falied last week just under the 6th square root progression of the May low in the 1.0610 area
  • The steady decline from this resistance has turned the near-term trend bias lower in Funds
  • The 3rd square root progression of the May low at 1.0310 looks like a key downside pivot with weakness under this level needed to prompt a more serious decline
  • Near-term cycle studies indicate Thursday and Tueday are possible minor turn windows in the rate
  • Sustained strength back over 1.0440 is required to turn us positive on USD/CAD

Strategy: Short positions favored while under 1.0440.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

1.0265

*1.0310

1.0385

*1.0440

1.0515

Focus Chart of the Day: XAU/USD

PT_bernanke_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Mixed Picture For USD Heading Into the Bernanke Testimony

The main currency pairs are giving off conflicting signals as to when the broader USD uptrend may try to resume. USD/Europe looks like it could try today while the commodity bloc and the yen seem to favor a few more days of USD weakness. One of these views is probably wrong. Inter-market cyclical analysis can often help clear up the picture during such muddled times, but not in this case as the next XAU/USD turn window is not really seen until early next week. The S&P 500, on the other hand, looks like it could try to put in some sort of minor top today or tomorrow.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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