News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Dollar has bottoming potential, but that is starting to lose weight as it fails to sustain any lift; next week could be a big one for #USD’s near-term outlook. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IifHjik7gM https://t.co/R9b4jdTPnO
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/lW1rqjpy0x
  • I’d like to thank my followers, I just reached 5,000 which is quite a milestone for someone that isn’t a huge fan of the platform. Thank you all very much ❤️
  • Technology stocks continue to be a source of weakness for US equities, undermining risk appetite. Meanwhile, US-China tensions simmer beneath the surface creating uncertainty. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/yH8oTwT3iW https://t.co/tvfrXThyaC
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/Xi9QU3ADPF
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/cQwbeZ6Feq
  • #Oil prices saw a reprieve to the recent selling pressure but remain at risk while below downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the #WTI technical chart. Get your #commodities update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/CcXsF3JCMH https://t.co/RUmS1cX52v
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/boEI8RuQdC
  • The growth-linked New Zealand Dollar may rise on the upcoming #RBNZ rate decision following rosy economic data. However, downside potential in the S&P 500 could offset $NZDUSD gains. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/LfCe6C6G3P https://t.co/kUeBxxeaEf
  • It was a quiet week in Aussie as $AUDUSD put in its second consecutive week of indecision. But taking a more granular look highlights the potential for a reversal scenario. Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/PPK20nubAf https://t.co/0nfmRRFNnz
Price & Time: USD Peak After Payrolls?

Price & Time: USD Peak After Payrolls?

2013-07-02 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

PT_USD_peak_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: USD Peak After Payrolls?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY broke above the 6th square root progression of last month’s low on Monday to trade to its highest level in almost a month
  • Our trend bias remains higher in the exchange rate while over 97.60
  • The 61.8 % retracement of the May to June decline in the 99.95 area is immediate resistance and a close over this level is required to maintain the immediate upside tack
  • Medium-term focused time cycle analysis indicates that the latter half of the week is a turn window
  • Near-term support seen around 98.60, but only weakness below 97.60 undermines the positive technical structure and turns us negative on the rate

Strategy: Like holding long positions above 97.60

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*97.60

98.60

99.75

*99.95

*100.55/65

USD/CHF:

PT_USD_peak_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD Peak After Payrolls?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded to just below the 4th square root progression of the June low on Monday in the .9510 area before stalling
  • Our trend bias is higher in the rate while above the 2nd square root progression of last month’s low in the .9320 area
  • The 1x2 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high converges with the 4th square root progression of last month’s low in the .9515/25 area over the next few days and a close above this level will be needed to trigger the next important move higher
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • The .9415/00 area is immediate support, but only aggressive weakness below .9320 alters the positive technical outlook and turns us negative on the dollar

Strategy: Like holding long positionis while above .9320

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*.9320

.9415/00

0.9480

*.9515/25

.9565

XAU/USD:

PT_USD_peak_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD Peak After Payrolls?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD fell below several key long-term retracements last week to trade at its lowest level since August of 2010 before finding support at Fibonacci symmetry in the 1180 area
  • While below 1284/1301 our trend bias has to remain lower in the metal, but the break of the 1248 2nd square root progression of last week’s low is suggestive of a more important turn
  • The cyclical picture is a bit unclear as a Gann time cycle relationship with the October high did exist late last week, but a more important window looks to be around mid-July
  • The 1st square root progression of last week’s low at 1215 is immediate support, but back under 1180 needed to signal a broader downtrend resumption
  • Strength on a closing basis over 1301 would alter the negative structure and turn us positive on the metal

Strategy: Reduced short postions favored while below 1301.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1180

1214

1255

*1284

*1301

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM Dollar Index

PT_USD_peak_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD Peak After Payrolls?

Several Fibonacci based time cycle techniques point to the end of this week and the start of next week as being significant for a few dollar pairs and a likely short-term cyclical inflection point. The fact this turn window coincides with a fundamental event line Non-Farm Payrolls makes it even more compelling and suggests to us that the data could influence the currency markets for at least a few days. The FXCM Dollar Index corroborates this analysis of the single pairs and points to a turn around the same time. In the index, however, the idealized time for a turn actually is early next week (Monday) which makes us wonder whether the data will force a final spike in the direction of the trend. More on this as it unfolds. For the moment the cyclical picture seems to favor a USD peak.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Need guidance managing risk on trades? Download the free Risk Management Indicator.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES