News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar will be bracing for a cascade of political risks including the first presidential debate, ongoing stimulus talks, the Supreme Court vacancy against the backdrop of key employment data. Get your #currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out:
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
Price & Time: A Reversal or Downside Acceleration Looming in Stocks?

Price & Time: A Reversal or Downside Acceleration Looming in Stocks?

2013-06-21 12:23:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:


PT_SPX_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: A Reversal or Downside Acceleration Looming in Stocks?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-EUR/USD failed just below the 1.3425 6th square root progression of the year-to-date low on Wednesday before coming under heavy downside pressure over the past couple of days

-Our bias is now lower in the Euro with special attention now on the 2nd square root progression of this week’s high in the 1.3185 area

-A close below this level will be further confirmation of a broader top and open the way for a more important decline in the weeks ahead

-Longer-term oriented cycle studies turn negative on the single currency next week

-The 1st square root progression of this week’s high near 1.3300 is immediate resistance, but only traction above 1.3415 undermines the burgeoning technical structure and turns us positive on the Euro

Strategy: Short positions favored in the Euro while below 1.3415


PT_SPX_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: A Reversal or Downside Acceleration Looming in Stocks?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/CHF found support last week at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date high in the .9145 area

-Strength from there has so far been unimpressive and a close above the 2nd square root progression of last week’s low at .9130 is required to shift our bias to positive

-The .9215 area is immediate support, but clear weakness below .9145 is required to signal the start of a broader downside resumption

-Longer-term cycle studies turn positive next week on the exchange rate, but a shorter-term interpretation suggests weakness over the next day or two

-A close above .9430 is needed to turn the technical outlook more positive

Strategy: Like being flat (if allowed) until the market shows more clarity by breaching .9430 or .9145.


PT_SPX_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: A Reversal or Downside Acceleration Looming in Stocks?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-NZD/USD came under aggressive downside pressure on Thursday and traded to its lowest level in over a year

-Our bias is lower in the Kiwi, but special attention needs to be paid to how the exchange rate reacts around the 61.8% retracement of the advance from the 1Q2011 low to this year’s high in the .7700 area

-Such long-term retracement levels have a greater propensity to spark changes in trend and a close below .7700 is required to alleviate our reversal fears and maintain the immediate downside tack in the rate

-Short-term oriented cycles favor some strength over the next day or two

-The .7940 area is now key resistance and only a close over this level turns us positive on the Bird

Strategy: Small short positions favored while below .7940. A close below .7700 is needed for us to get more excited about the short side in Kiwi.

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_SPX_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: A Reversal or Downside Acceleration Looming in Stocks?

As strange as it might seem following yesterday’s break of key support at 1595 the S&P 500 now looks like it could be nearing some sort of cyclical low. A key component of our cyclical methodology is to look for markets clearly trending into a turn window as they are supposed to be more vulnerable to a reversal during that time period. With the S&P 500 breaking 1595 it is now technically trending lower and is thus susceptible to turning higher over the next few days. We had been anticipating a top of some sort during this turn window given how persistent the trend in stocks (and sentiment towards stocks) had been leading into this week, but as has often been case over the past 4 years in the QE era the market threw us a cyclical curve ball. Of course there is a small chance that the equity market may have just peaked a little early and will actually accelerate lower in the next few days. As we have mentioned in prior notes, occasionally these cyclical windows can actually spark an acceleration in the direction of the trend. However, this is very rare and the (much) lower probability scenario. Continued weakness past Tuesday would make us take this scenario much more seriously. A close back over 1605 increases the prospects for a low.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the SPX in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.