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Price & Time: USD/NOK Turns Right on Schedule - Now What?

Price & Time: USD/NOK Turns Right on Schedule - Now What?

2013-03-22 15:50:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

EUR/USD:

PT_USDNOK_TURN_ON_SCHED_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: USD/NOK Turns Right on Schedule - Now What?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-EUR/USD has consolidated above the 1.2880/95 Gann/Fibonacci zone over the past few days following several probes below this key support at the start of the week

- While the exchange rate remains below important Gann and retracement resistance in the 1.3000/20 area our bias remains lower

- Cyclical studies are opposing at the moment with medium-term ones negative into next month while short-term studies look positive for a few more days

- The 1.2880 level remains an important pivot on the downside

-Weakness below signals a downside resumption

Strategy: Recent action has been painful. Took a 30 pip loss selling the break of 1.2880 at the start of the week. As we have noted a counter-trend move developing from test of key support wouldn’t surprise but strength has been lacking. Want to see how the euro reacts around 1.3020. Will look to begin operating on the long side if it can muster any real strength above.

USD/CHF:

PT_USDNOK_TURN_ON_SCHED_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD/NOK Turns Right on Schedule - Now What?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- USD/CHF resumed its decline on Friday from last week’s failure at the 2x1 Gann line drawn from the 2012 high

- We remain negative on the pair with attention still on a confluence of several key Gann & Fibonacci levels in the .9360/85 area.

-Weakness below this zone is really needed to setup a more important correction towards .9300

- Time cycle analysis is negative on the rate for a few more days, but medium-term cycles still are positive

- A retracement convergence in the .9500 area remains key resistance and only strength above this level shifts our bias back to positive and in line with the medium-term cycles

Strategy: We got short at .9480. Now looking to take profit on half if .9390 prints. Lowering stop to right around cost.

NZD/USD:

PT_USDNOK_TURN_ON_SCHED_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD/NOK Turns Right on Schedule - Now What?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- NZD/USD has moved aggressively higher over the past few days and overcame key retracement resistance in the .8300 area

- Our bias remains higher in the Kiwi, but strength over a convergence of square root progressions related to the year-to-date range in the .8340/45 area needed to trigger the next extension

- Some minor turn windows seen around the middle of the week and the start of next week

- Retracements in the .8300 area are now immediate support

- However, only weakness under a Gann square convergence in the .8255 area turn us negative on the Bird

Strategy: We were a bit unlucky. Got stopped out at cost in our long position in the volatility surrounding the GDP figures. Looking now to buy on a dip at .8275 with a stop just under .8245.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/NOK

PT_USDNOK_TURN_ON_SCHED_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD/NOK Turns Right on Schedule - Now What?

As we noted on Wednesday, we have been on the lookout for a turn in USD/NOK. A convergence of several cyclical studies (most notably a clear Fibonacci bar count sequence since the start of the year) pointed to a down move of some sort commencing. With Thursday’s narrow range bar and subsequent weakness coming right during our three day turn window the action is precisely what we wanted to see. We got short on a break of Thursday’s low with a stop over the 5.8575 high. The short-term cyclical picture looks negative for at least a few more days. Will look to take off half ahead of retracement support in the 5.7820 area and move our stop to cost if it is seen. There is a chance this move could also turn into a more important decline. Stay tuned.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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