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Price & Time: And the Beat Goes On

Price & Time: And the Beat Goes On

2013-03-15 17:26:00
Kristian A. Kerr,
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

PT_and_the_beat_goes_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: And the Beat Goes On

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/JPY failed just above the 96.60 6th square root progression from last month’s low during a Gann related turn window

- Weakness has been rather limited, however, and while above the 4th square root progression from the February low at 94.70 our bias remains higher in the pair

- Break above 96.60 needed to signal upside resumption and bring 97.25 into focus

- Minor Fibonacci related time turn window in effect into Tuesday

- The 94.70 Gann level is critical support and a close below this level will turn the immediate outlook negative

Strategy: We took profit on our dollar long position on the move under 95.40. It was good for about 165bps. Mixed cyclical picture will keep us sidelined for a couple of days.

NZD/USD:

PT_and_the_beat_goes_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: And the Beat Goes On

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- NZD/USD tested a key Gann & Fibonacci support zone around the middle of the week

- Subsequent strength through the .8235 retracement confluence has shifted our bias higher

-The .8255 Gann level related to the year-to-date high is now a key near-term pivot with strength above needed to signal a more important upside correction

- Near-term focused cyclical studies are positive on the Bird for a few more days

- The 1x1 Gann line from Wednesday’s close is now immediate support, but only a move under .8150 signals a broader downside resumption

Strategy: We took profit on our kiwi short from .8285 at .8175 for a nice gain. Afraid we may have missed our entry, but risk reward is not good at current levels. For now, looking to buy on weakness at .8200 with a stop under .8145.

USD/CAD:

PT_and_the_beat_goes_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: And the Beat Goes On

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- USD/CAD has seen further weakness over the past few days following repeated failures at the start of the month from the 261.8% extension of the January decline

- Bias is now lower with immediate focus on a retracement convergence between 1.0170/85

- Below there exposes a critical Fibonacci/Gann confluence in the 1.0130/45 area

- Short-term time cycles are less clear, but look marginally more negative for a few more days

- Confluence of Gann & Andrews lines near 1.0240 now immediate resistance and only strength over this level undermines the immediate negative tone in Funds

Strategy: We sold USD/CAD on the break of 1.0235. Will take some off at 1.0150 if it prints. Lower stop to just over 1.0245.

Focus Chart of the Day: Dow 30

PT_and_the_beat_goes_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: And the Beat Goes On

Gann often wrote about the “squaring of price and time” and the “law of vibration” or the idea that past important highs/lows will have influence on future ones. This can take many forms. One methodology that particularly resonates with us is the use of time to forecast price and vice versa. One cycle at play over the next few days or so is directly related to the 1973 top in the Dow (Hat tip PSP). This high recorded on January 11, 1973 proved to be the high watermark of the decade and led to a swift bear market into the 1974 low (which is still significant in Gann theory to this day). Today is 14,673 calendar days from that high. The index is very near this level in terms of price. Will it square out? Who knows? But trading is really more about observation than anything else. We will be watching the index closely over the next few days to see if it can test this area and more importantly whether the potential time cycle can elicit a response. If it does we will update our cyclical and trading outlook.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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