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Price & Time: Reversal or Continuation?

Price & Time: Reversal or Continuation?

2013-03-13 15:52:00
Kristian A. Kerr,
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/CHF:

PT_reversal_continuation_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Reversal or Continuation?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/CHF continues to consolidate under the 2x1 Gann line from last year’s high in the .9555 area

- Our bias remains higher, but strength over this level is needed to setup a test of the key 61.8% retracement of the July to February decline near .9610

- Cyclical picture is unclear with no real turn widow of significance seen until the middle of next week

- Immediate support is seen at the 1x3 Gann line drawn from last month’s low in the .9440 area

- Weakness under this level would warn that a more significant counter-trend move is commencing

Strategy: Missed getting long USD/CHF last week by a few pips. Prefer seeing how the pair reacts at key overhead resistance before commencing the next operation.

USD/CAD:

PT_reversal_continuation_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Reversal or Continuation?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- Funds has so far been unable to surpass the convergence of the 261.8% extension of the January decline and the 88.6% retracement of last year’s range in the 1.0340/50 area

- With the most recent failure coming during a medium-term cyclical turn window we are now on the lookout for a deeper decline

- A Gann square of nine level related to the month-to date high at 1.0235 is now immediate support

- Weakness below this level needed to spark a deeper decline towards 1.0180

- However, strength over 1.0350 signals a broader uptrend resumption

Strategy: We took profit on our long held short USD/CAD position last week on the move under 1.0250. We will look to go short on a break under 1.0235 over the next couple of days with a stop just over today’s or tomorrow’s high.

NZD/USD:

PT_reversal_continuation_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Reversal or Continuation?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- NZD/USD found renewed support to start the week at the 88.6% retracement of the December to February advance in the .8195 area

- This low came during a cyclical turn window and shorter-term cyclical studies are still positive on the bird for a few more days

- However, strength over a Fibonacci cluster near .8300 is required to shift our positional bias higher

- The .8195 retracement level is now immediate support

- But weakness below a key Gann/Fibonacci cluster between .8150/60 is really needed to signal the start of a more impulsive move lower

Strategy: Got short Kiwi on the break of .8285. Looking to take profit if .8175 prints. Stop now raised to cost. May look to get long on a break of .8300.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_reversal_continuation_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Reversal or Continuation?

We have been looking for a turn in USD/JPY during the first part of the week. Our reasoning was rooted in Gann theory which depicts time in geometric terms; with a year represented by the 360 degrees of a circle. Gann believed quarterly divisions of a year to be significant and turns hence are more likely to materialize around these increments. The current advance in USD/JPY commenced on September 13th of last year which is 180 degrees in time from the start of this week. The “turn window” has clearly elicited a reaction from the market but we do not know its duration. Only weakness under 95.00 warns of a deeper more important correction.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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