News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5ddzFV https://t.co/8GJ6OQYgnW
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ZKHGXeVhsR https://t.co/QSltMQml6N
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/DSp7f3YuAx
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/HNqHcbL6vk
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTFBxM https://t.co/FbepD4RaFg
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/XS0176LyOg
Price & Time: Gut Check Time

Price & Time: Gut Check Time

Kristian A. Kerr,

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

EUR/USD:

PT_gut_check_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Gut Check Time

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- The Euro has rebounded from a multitude of Fibonacci retracement and projections levels found between 1.3150-70

- Downtrend from the early February high, however, has so far sustained little damage

- While the pair is below key resistance in the 1.3365-75 area which is a convergence of the 1x1 Gann line from the year-to-date high and the second square root progression from last week’s low our bias has to remain lower

- We should point out that several shorter-term cyclical methods suggest that a counter-trend move lasting a few days could start around the middle of the week

- Under 1.3150, ideally on a closing basis, needed to signal downside resumption

Strategy: Some backfilling from the 1.3150-70 support area is to be expected especially with shorter-term cyclical studies turning more positive here. This the hard part of the move. Stay short while 1.3375 holds.

EUR/GBP:

PT_gut_check_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gut Check Time

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- EUR/GBP touched its highest level since late October of 2011 on Monday

- A key Fibonacci confluence of various longer-term retracements and the 127% extension of the early February decline in the .8780-.8800 area was also briefly overcome

-Focus remains higher, but traction above .8800 now required to set up a more important push higher

- Bigger picture cyclical turn window not seen until early April in the cross, but near-term cyclical techniques favor consolidation for a few days

- Gann square of nine level related to Monday’s high at .8720 now immediate support, but only under the further Gann level at .8625 would signal a false break and shift attention lower

Strategy: We were stopped out ahead of the latest move higher. We like the long side while over .8625, but prefer positioning for this on a break of .8800.

NZD/USD:

PT_gut_check_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gut Check Time

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- The Kiwi’s decline from the .8530 78.6% retracement of the 2011 range has stalled around a convergence of Gann support in the .8335-45 area

- Upside retracement over the past few days still looks corrective and while the exchange rate is below various Gann and Fibonacci retracements at .8450 our immediate bias is lower

- A Pi cycle relationship with the June low coinciding with the recent high increases scope for a much bigger decline in the weeks ahead

- Near-term Fibonacci related cyclical studies are also negative for the next few days

- The .8345 Gann level remains a key pivot in the pair and renewed weakness under this level should prompt a more aggressive decline

Strategy: We like being short the Bird and only above .8450 fosters doubt. Strength over the .8530 high is really required, however, to throw the cyclical picture completely out of whack.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/NZD

PT_gut_check_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gut Check Time

Often times through the cyclical analysis of the main currency pairs we will “back into” potential cycles in related cross rates. We believe we have found one such instance in EUR/NZD. Through the use of various Fibonacci related ratios it looks to us that the EUR/USD is more prone to rally around the middle of the week. At the same time through the use of these same ratios the Kiwi looks vulnerable to a decline. Logically if our assumption is correct then EUR/NZD should soon rally. A quick cyclical day count of the cross further confirms this near-term outlook and suggests the cross is nearing the right time for a cyclical low of some magnitude. A push over resistance at 1.5850 should signal the start of a multi-day advance in the cross.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at@KKerrFX.

Are you looking for other ways to pinpoint support and resistance levels? Take our free tutorial on using Fibonacci retracements.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES