We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUSTRALIA PM MORRISON: - Businesses need to judge China risk, but iron ore trading figures reassuring - Reopening the economy over 3-5 years will be more difficult than closing it down, facing "most challenging [economy]...outside of wartime." #AUDUSD
  • (#ASEAN Fundy) The US Dollar could rise against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data $USDSGD #USD $USDINR - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/05/25/US-Dollar-May-Rise-as-SGD-Falls-on-US-China-Woes-Indian-Rupee-at-Risk.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/BHR1vaN8vO
  • BOJ GOV KURODA: - will consider expanding ETF purchases if needed - monetary easing is needed until price-target is met - will consider new easing measures if needed - BoJ's extraordinary measures wont stay post-coronavirus #USDJPY #BOJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.44% Oil - US Crude: 1.02% Gold: 0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zbMOhIkpeW
  • As political tensions between the US and China increase, $gld is picking up a safe-haven bid ahead of the long weekend and may look to press higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/boUn4vyfCO https://t.co/beDj1yEO0U
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.28% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qj45yOo16T
  • BOJ GOV KURODA: - will consider changing rates of yield curve control if needed - will consider expanding loan programs if needed #USDJPY #BOJ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.43%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/4TavGtwG3Z
  • Risk-on tone prevailing in APAC trade. #SPX futures up with #AUD and #NZD as #USD, #JPY and #bonds decline. #Gold interestingly up with stocks despite higher yields, weaker US$ may be the driver https://t.co/MJH6iKu3MX
  • China sets #USDCNY daily reference rate at 7.1293 vs 7.1277 yesterday
Price & Time: Watching the Commodity Bloc

Price & Time: Watching the Commodity Bloc

2013-02-18 17:26:00
Kristian A. Kerr,
Share:

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be obtained.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

EUR/USD:

PT_commreal_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Watching the Commodity Bloc

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-EUR/USD broke under the 1x2 Gann line from the 2011 high last week and is now in consolidation around this level (now near 1.3365)

- This keeps focus lower with weakness below a minor Fibonacci confluence in the 1.3290 area needed to setup the next downside extension

- In addition to the aforementioned Gann line, resistance is seen near a pitchfork line connecting the February highs at 1.3390

- A break over this level needed to undermine immediate negative outlook, but only strength over the further resistance at 1.3460 shifts attention higher

- Near term cyclical studies indicate Tuesday is a minor turn window where a counter-trend move lasting a few days could materialize

Strategy: We still like holding short positions here, but with the cyclical picture turning more positive over the next few days prudence dictates that stops be tightened.

USD/CHF:

PT_commreal_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Watching the Commodity Bloc

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- USD/CHF has moved steadily higher since finding demand at the start of the month just under the 61.8% retracement of the October 2011 to July 2012 advance

- Focus is to the upside with the 50% retracement of the same move in the .9270 area now immediate resistance

- A clear push over this level is need to trigger a more important push higher towards various Fibonacci and Gann levels over the .9300 handle

- The 50% retracement of the year-to-date range near .9200 is now immediate support with weakness under this level required to undermine the immediate positive picture

- Shorter cycles warn that a reversal could be attempted over the next couple of days

Strategy: We like holding longs while over .9200, but with the near-term cyclical picture getting a little more negative over the next few days we are getting wary of a potential reversal. Tighten stops.

EUR/CHF:

PT_commreal_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Watching the Commodity Bloc

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

- EUR/CHF has settled into a consolidation between the 50% retracement of the September to January advance and the 38% retracement of the January to February decline

- As such, these levels are now key for the cross with strength over 1.2375 needed to turn the outlook more positive

- Likewise, weakness under 1.2275 now needed to signal that a deeper retracement is underway

- Cyclical picture is also quite muddled, but near-term studies seem to favor the upside over the next few days

Strategy: Cross is a bit of a mess here. We still like getting long on any strength over the recent range. We are less excited about chasing a break to the downside.

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

PT_commreal_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Watching the Commodity Bloc

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

This is an important week for the commodity bloc from a timing perspective. A Pi frequency related to last year’s June low in these currencies suggests strong potential for a turn of some significance this week. On this note it is worth mentioning that NZD/USD recorded its highest level since September of 2011 on Friday. Such action would normally be quite bullish from a technical perspective, but given the possible cycle at play we can’t help but wonder if a peak of some sort is going to be seen. The price action over the next few days should be key. We will be closely watching the second square root progression from Friday’s high near .8350 as a close under this level would be a good sign that a turn is indeed being witnessed in the Bird.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

New to forex? Sign up for our DailyFX Forex Education Series

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.