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Price & Time: June Time Relationship to Influence FX Next Week?

Price & Time: June Time Relationship to Influence FX Next Week?

2013-02-11 19:58:00
Kristian A. Kerr,
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This daily publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be obtained.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

USD/JPY:

Price_Time_June_TIme_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: June Time Relationship to Influence FX Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/JPY has stalled its advance near the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007- 2011 decline in the 94.00 area

- Upside focus remains on this Fibonacci resistance with a clear breach of this level need to signal upside trend resumption towards Fib extension just above 95.00

-Gann resistance turned support in the 93.00 area the first level of note, but only weakness below the second square root progression from the recent highs near 92.00 would warn that a more ominous decline is set to ensue

-Near-term focused cyclical techniques point to the middle of the week holding significance for the pair, while late March looks to be the next real time window of importance

USD/CAD:

Price_Time_June_TIme_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: June Time Relationship to Influence FX Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-USD/CAD turned aggesssively higher from just above a key convergence of Gann, pitchfork and Fibonacci retracement support in the .9920 area

-Subsequent strength above the 50% retracement of last year's range in the 1.0040 area has shifted focus higher

-Key resistance now the 1x8 Gann fan line from last year’s closing high in the 1.0100 area with a clear break there need to prompt a test of more serious resistance some 35 pips higher

- Support level to watch is a convergence of minor Gann lines near 1.0015 with weakness below this zone needed to shift attention lower

-Last month’s high in Funds occurred during a Gann 90-day ‘Death Zone’ cycle

-Push over this high will undo negative cyclical prospects

-Medium-term cyclical techniques suggest early next week is a potentially important time window

EUR/AUD:

Price_Time_June_TIme_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: June Time Relationship to Influence FX Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

-EUR/AUD continues to consolidate just under the 2x1 Gann line connecting the 2008 high and last year’s low

-Lack of technical damage keeps focus higher in the cross

-The 61.8% retracement of the recent range in the 1.3080 area acts as near term resistance

-Close over the aforementioned long-term Gann line now near 1.3170 required, however, to signal start of more important move higher

- On the downside the 1x2 Gann line connecting last November’s closing low with this month’s high in the 1.2940 area is important support with weakness below there required to prompt a more serious decline

-A variety of techniques point to late April/Early May being significant for the cross from a cyclical perspective, but early next week could also have influence

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/MXN

Price_Time_June_TIme_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: June Time Relationship to Influence FX Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/MXN recorded a significant high in early June of last year which proceeded a general period of dollar weakness over the remainder of the year. A Pi relationship from June indicates an important time window for the pair is approaching with the next couple of weeks looking more susceptible to an increase in volatility. We should note other commodity currencies turned around this time in June as well and could also be influenced by this cycle, We will be watching USD/MXN especially closely during this time as the Peso’s “emerging market higher beta” status could have broader implications for FX should a turn begin to materialize.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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