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FOREX Trading: EUR/JPY Drops into Structural Support; Trade the Range

FOREX Trading: EUR/JPY Drops into Structural Support; Trade the Range

2013-01-15 14:09:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations

My trading focus remains on the Euro crosses. Yesterday’s commentary remains valid and new comments are in bold…

“Eventual EURUSD targets extend to 13800-13900 and 14400 and risk (for longs) is the 1/10 low at 13038. Former resistance at 13270-13308 is now estimated support. In Friday’s DailyFX PLUS video, I mentioned the 5 day average as a trigger point. The 5 day average is only at 13220 today but that level will increase quickly with each passing day.

The EURUSD has dropped to within 1 pip of the top of the mentioned range (13308). Supports extends down to 13270, which is also where the 5 day average is now. I’m looking for support at 13270.

If 2013 is the ‘year of the breakout’, then the EURAUD is probably next in line. A late December break above the inverse head and shoulders neckline proved false and price is back testing the line again today. Near term support has been reached at 12626 (intraday Friday pivot). The decline from last night’s high is probably the first wave of a 3 wave corrective drop. 12530/70 would be an ideal level to look for a low if reached. I’ll be closely following the near term pattern and updating via Twitter @JamieSaettele.

The EURAUD decline from 12710 would consist of 2 equal legs at 12612 but Fibonacci retracements don’t begin until 12575 (38.2% of 12357-12710). The 50% at 12533 is reinforced by former resistance from the 1/8 high at 12529. Be picky…let the correction play out this week or take advantage of a sharp drop into 12529/75.

What many really care about I’m sure if the EURJPY. Those that wish to fight this (and I’m looking to do just that) may wish to do so on strength into 11967 with a stop above last night’s high and a 11760 target.”

The EURJPY never traded through 12012 and dropped to 11765 this morning. Given the run since 11/13 (5 waves up), weakness may very well extend to the former 4th wave low at 11354. Estimated resistance is now 11855-11905 and the next potential support (on a break below 11765) is 11595 (1/2 high). I’ll be using the mentioned levels to trade the expected range.

EURUSD - Daily

FOREX_Trading_EURJPY_Drops_into_Structural_Support_Trade_the_Range__body_eurusd.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/JPY Drops into Structural Support; Trade the Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURAUD –Daily

FOREX_Trading_EURJPY_Drops_into_Structural_Support_Trade_the_Range__body_euraud.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/JPY Drops into Structural Support; Trade the Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURJPY –240 Minute Bars

FOREX_Trading_EURJPY_Drops_into_Structural_Support_Trade_the_Range__body_eurjpy.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/JPY Drops into Structural Support; Trade the Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURJPY –60 Minute Bars

FOREX_Trading_EURJPY_Drops_into_Structural_Support_Trade_the_Range__body_eurjpy_1.png, FOREX Trading: EUR/JPY Drops into Structural Support; Trade the Range

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the ForexMarket.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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