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FOREX Trading: NZD/JPY Repeating a 2006 AUD/JPY Pattern?

FOREX Trading: NZD/JPY Repeating a 2006 AUD/JPY Pattern?

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations

I remarked last night on Twitter (@JamieSaettele) that the NZDJPY RSI closed above 85 yesterday. Going back to December 2007 (which is the earliest date that I have NZDJPY data), the most extreme RSI reading was 83.50 on January 3rd, 2007 (price fell nearly 400 pips during the next 3 days). The AUDJPY registered an 85 reading on 12/5/05 and 12/6/06. Price fell from above 9100 to 8450 in less than 3 weeks.

The similarities between the AUDJPY in December 2006 and the NZDJPY now are striking. Both advances channel perfectly. Even the swings within the channel are nearly identical. It’s worth noting that the AUDJPY drop in December 2006 (while significant) proved a mere interruption within the bull market that extended into July 2007 (and the carry trade top). Once can be sure that the crowd will treat any weakness as a pullback to be bought for still higher prices if the NZDJPY begins to trade lower. In my estimation, the opportunity is on the short side at this level. Trade appropriately. A NZDJPY weekly is provided for additional context. Notice the Fibonacci confluence at the current level as well.

AUDJPY in 2006 – Daily

FOREX_Trading_NZDJPY_Repeating_a_2006_AUDJPY_Pattern_body_audjpy.png, FOREX Trading: NZD/JPY Repeating a 2006 AUD/JPY Pattern?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDJPY Now – Daily

FOREX_Trading_NZDJPY_Repeating_a_2006_AUDJPY_Pattern_body_nzdjpy.png, FOREX Trading: NZD/JPY Repeating a 2006 AUD/JPY Pattern?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDJPY - Weekly

FOREX_Trading_NZDJPY_Repeating_a_2006_AUDJPY_Pattern_body_nzdjpy_1.png, FOREX Trading: NZD/JPY Repeating a 2006 AUD/JPY Pattern?

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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