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FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Trades into High Risk Zone

FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Trades into High Risk Zone

2012-11-15 14:40:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations

AUD/USD-Has traded to November lows, which opens up a move to the 61.8% retracement of 10148-10480 at 10275. Former support at 10359 is now resistance. I’ll probably be increasing short exposure (all updates released via Twitter @JamieSaettele).

USD/JPY-I wrote yesterday that “8042/47 is resistance before the high and I’m on the lookout for exhaustion and a top the rest of this week. Even if the rally from 7712 is unfolding as an impulse (5 waves), the USD/JPY is likely to reverse after trading above 8067.” The USD/JPY is closing in on 8150, which is the 61.8% retracement of the decline from March. The potential resistance zone extends to about 8250. 8244 is the 61.8% extension of the 7556-8417 rally from 7712 and the top of the March 2011 intervention (8246).

AUD/JPY-is working on its 4th consecutive week at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from March. If price exceeds 8415 (just 20 pips shy now), then levels of interest are 8480 (March low, pivot highs in April), 8503 (61.8% extension of 7445-8357 from 7940) and 8621.

EUR/AUD-moved up so far so fast that I never had a chance to get in. Price is already nearing the 38.2% of the drop from the October top at 12414. I’d expect a reaction there if reached. 12338 is interim support with 12300 as probably stronger support.

USD/JPY – Weekly Bars

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Trades_into_High_Risk_Zone_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Trades into High Risk Zone

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USD/JPY – Daily Bars

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Trades_into_High_Risk_Zone_body_usdjpy_1.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Trades into High Risk Zone

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUD/USD – Daily Bars

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Trades_into_High_Risk_Zone_body_audusd.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Trades into High Risk Zone

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EUR/AUD – Daily Bars

FOREX_Trading_USDJPY_Trades_into_High_Risk_Zone_body_euraud.png, FOREX Trading: USD/JPY Trades into High Risk Zone

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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