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FOREX Technical Analysis: Euro / Yen Probes Channel and Measured Level

FOREX Technical Analysis: Euro / Yen Probes Channel and Measured Level

2012-11-07 14:36:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations

-EURUSD-The EURUSD reversed just shy of 12882 resistance last night and is now pressing against the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 12042. If this was Monday, I’d be willing to fade this weakness and look higher. Not on a Wednesday after signs of reversal on Tuesday however. The suggestion is that the market isn’t positioned for this drop and that is has more to run. Moreover, the EURUSD is working on a JS Thrust day (emotional day). What happens in the immediate aftermath of a thrust day tends to reveal whether the thrust day will signal exhaustion (in this case a low) or a breakout. 12790-12820 is resistance and the next level of interest is 12650. Bearish risk should still be kept to the more objective 12982 rather than 12876.

-USDJPY-Yesterday’s comments remain valid – “the USDJPY has slipped lower and remains at a high risk area for bulls. The area is defined by the June high, which produced a sharp reaction. Although viewed constructively longer term, there is room for weakness into 7927/63, probably as a 4th wave. Respect this 4th wave interpretation as long as price is below 8067. Resistance is 8040/47.” The high last night was 8042. I’m expecting a response at 7963.

-EURJPY-Combine the EURUSD and USDJPY pictures, and you get quite the bearish EURJPY painting. Shorts over the last few days are in good shape but expect a market response at/near 10157. This level is defined by the 100% extension of the 10459-10217 decline and intersects channel support today. Additional levels of interest are the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 9411, at 10060 and the 161.8% extension of the mentioned bear leg at 10008. 10240 and 10280 are estimated resistance levels.

-AUDUSD and NZDUSD-a first attempt to short NZDUSD was stopped at breakeven last night but both commodity crosses are showing signs of exhaustion (intraday JS Spikes) at important levels (10494 is the 100% extension of the rally from 10148 in AUDUSD and 8299 is the 9/28 JS Spike close in NZDUSD). My interest is piqued and I’ll be monitoring both pairs closely.

EURUSD – Daily Bars

FOREX_Technical_Analysis_Euro_Yen_Probes_Channel_and_Measured_Level_body_eurusd.png, FOREX Technical Analysis: Euro / Yen Probes Channel and Measured Level

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – Daily Bars

FOREX_Technical_Analysis_Euro_Yen_Probes_Channel_and_Measured_Level_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Technical Analysis: Euro / Yen Probes Channel and Measured Level

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURJPY – Daily Bars

FOREX_Technical_Analysis_Euro_Yen_Probes_Channel_and_Measured_Level_body_EURJPY.png, FOREX Technical Analysis: Euro / Yen Probes Channel and Measured Level

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter for real time updates @JamieSaettele

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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