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Early Week Weakness in Commodity Bloc FX

Early Week Weakness in Commodity Bloc FX

2012-08-13 14:37:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

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Markets are quiet which is not new but relative weakness in the AUD has piqued my interest. An AUDCAD weekly key reversal last week may be a ‘tell’ that the AUDUSD path is lower as well. AUDCAD key reversals are in red on the first chart below. RSI failure before 70 and a potential head and shoulders top are also bearish. The sharpest (largest price change in shortest amount of time) tend to occur at turns. Since the AUDUSD has been trading sideways (triangle) since the 2011 top, trading turns is even more attractive. I am currently short from Friday (10520 entry) with a 10590 stop, which was just missed on Friday. A drop below 10435 would increase confidence in the short side.

The EUR is strong today as the EURAUD is the top performer on the day. I exited the EURAUD long Friday at breakeven (11635). If you stayed with it (original stop was 11600) then good for you and 12100+ is in play on a move above 11775. Near term support comes in at 11710/20.

AUDCAD – Weekly Bars

Early_Week_Weakness_in_Commodity_Bloc_FX__body_audcad.png, Early Week Weakness in Commodity Bloc FX

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – Daily Bars

Early_Week_Weakness_in_Commodity_Bloc_FX__body_audusd.png, Early Week Weakness in Commodity Bloc FX

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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