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Near Term AUDUSD and EURUSD Expectations

Near Term AUDUSD and EURUSD Expectations

2012-07-26 14:35:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Suspicions that the AUDUSD rally from the 6/25 (9968) low was unfolding as a diagonal are being proved correct with price nearing last week’s high. Watch the i-iii line, which intersects the 100% extension of wave iii at 10520 on Monday. Theoretically, the AUDUSD shouldn’t exceed 10520 (if this indeed a diagonal) as doing so would make wave iii the shortest wave from 9968 and violate the rules of Elliott. Remember also that the advance from June 1 is probably wave D of a triangle. The implications being that the next big move is lower in wave E below parity.

The anticipated reversal has materialized in the EURUSD and we can now focus on how far the rally is likely to extend. Elliott wave guidelines state that wave 4 often alternates with wave 2 of the same degree with respect to character. In other words, if wave 2 is sharp and simple then expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Wave 2 (13003-13384) was sharp (retracing 78.6% of wave 1) and simple (3 wave zigzag) thus we should expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Shallow means a 23.6%-38.2% retracement of wave 3. The corresponding levels are 12378 and 12570. Daily RSI will help us time the end of wave 4 as well but we’ll deal with that when appropriate.

AUDUSD – 240 Minute Bars

Near_Term_AUDUSD_and_EURUSD_Expectations_body_audusd.png, Near Term AUDUSD and EURUSD Expectations

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – Weekly Bars

Near_Term_AUDUSD_and_EURUSD_Expectations_body_audusd_1.png, Near Term AUDUSD and EURUSD Expectations

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Daily Bars

Near_Term_AUDUSD_and_EURUSD_Expectations_body_eurusd.png, Near Term AUDUSD and EURUSD Expectations

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

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