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Commodity FX Recovers but Shorts Still in Play-Euro Still Offered

Commodity FX Recovers but Shorts Still in Play-Euro Still Offered

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos

Good morning. We’ve seen a bigger bounce than expected in the risk currencies (AUD and NZD) but I’m staying bearish against the recent pivot highs of 10281 and 8000. I acknowledge that the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have held their short term corrective channels but bigger picture evidence does not warrant a reversal of bias. The current situation highlights the importance that good entries play in risk management. Being short from 10240 enables us to minimize risk to 10280 at a time when we are uncertain if yesterday’s drop was the beginning of a larger decline or a blip in a larger uptrend. 10190/10200 is resistance.

Of note is key reversals yesterday in the AUDNZD (bearish), EURAUD and NZDUSD (both bearish).

There isn’t much reason to fade EURUSD weakness yet. EURUSD bottoms are usually the product of heightened emotions and in turn increased volatility. The current EURUSD environment does not fit that description. 12065 remains a level of interest. I would not initiate new shorts here however as the reward/risk profile is no longer favorable (it is above 12220, preferably close to 12250 with a stop above 12335).

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Commodity_FX_Recovers_but_Shorts_Still_in_Play-Euro_Still_Offered_body_all.png, Commodity FX Recovers but Shorts Still in Play-Euro Still Offered

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – 240 Minute Bars

Commodity_FX_Recovers_but_Shorts_Still_in_Play-Euro_Still_Offered_body_audusd.png, Commodity FX Recovers but Shorts Still in Play-Euro Still Offered

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – 240 Minute Bars

Commodity_FX_Recovers_but_Shorts_Still_in_Play-Euro_Still_Offered_body_nzdusd.png, Commodity FX Recovers but Shorts Still in Play-Euro Still Offered

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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