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'Risk Off' Favored from Current Levels Before Next Surge

'Risk Off' Favored from Current Levels Before Next Surge

2012-06-14 13:42:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

“THE MARKET(S)” a.k.a. “RISK” SNAPSHOT - 60 Minute Closes

Risk_Off_Favored_from_Current_Level_Before_Next_Surge__body_all.png, 'Risk Off' Favored from Current Levels Before Next Surge

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

SPX 500 – Daily Bars

Risk_Off_Favored_from_Current_Level_Before_Next_Surge__body_SPY.png, 'Risk Off' Favored from Current Levels Before Next Surge

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

This chart is updated from Monday. The text is unchanged. “Most of the correction (rally) is probably complete in price but not time. Slightly more than 50% of the decline has been retraced in just over a week’s time. The decline from the April high consumed 43 days. I’ll dig deeper into the statistics but a quick look at corrective rallies that occur following 5 wave declines from significant tops (1987 and 2007 for example) reveal that the corrective rally tends to consume 1/3 – 1/2 of the time that the decline did. In other words, one would expect the rally from the low to take roughly 14 to 21 days. Projected from the 6/4 low, we get possible topping dates on 6/22 (next Friday) and 7/3.”

SPY ETF – Daily Candles

Risk_Off_Favored_from_Current_Level_Before_Next_Surge__body_SPY_1.png, 'Risk Off' Favored from Current Levels Before Next Surge

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

This is updated from Friday. Expectations remain for a drop towards the gap in SPY before formation of a B wave low and commencement of a strong C wave rally later in June. In summary, look lower towards 129.50-130 in SPY before turning bullish (measured objective from equality between 2 legs from the top is at 130.28. Equivalent levels are 1292/98 in the S&P index (equality at 1298.38), 12270/12310 in the Dow (equality at 12346.87), and 1275/80 in the S&P futures (September) (equality at 1276.25).

AUDUSD – 60 Minute Bars

Risk_Off_Favored_from_Current_Level_Before_Next_Surge__body_audusd.png, 'Risk Off' Favored from Current Levels Before Next Surge

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I’m still playing the risk on/off waves through the AUDUSD (keep it simple, the game is difficult enough). As mentioned Tuesday, “trade with the larger trend but decrease size on weakness at support and increase size on strength at resistance.” The AUDUSD has exceeded its 9965 resistance the last few days but not by much and not for very long. More importantly, the Sunday night high has not been exceeded. The current level / 9980 is resistance and support is 9885/9900 (if a triangle) for today.

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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