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EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

2012-06-13 13:44:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

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“THE MARKET(S)” a.k.a. “RISK” SNAPSHOT - 60 Minute Closes

EURUSD_Short_Term_Reversal_at_Technical_Confluence_body_all.png, EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold has been a leader in recent weeks, having bottomed on May 30th and topped on June 6th. The decline from June 6th is in 5 waves and the subsequent rally has run into resistance and appears to be completing a 3 wave correction near current levels.”

SPX 500 (fair value) – 60 Minute Bars

EURUSD_Short_Term_Reversal_at_Technical_Confluence_body_spx.png, EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Yesterday’s update noted that “resistance for the next few days in the S&P are around 133 (SPY), 1323 (e-mini futures), and 1325 (index). The area around the 5/18 lows are supports.” SPY touched 132.99 before the close yesterday, the index reached 1324.30 before the close yesterday and the e-mini reached 1320.75 during European trading today. We are at resistance now, which sets up for a bearish Wednesday.

AUDUSD – 60 Minute Bars

EURUSD_Short_Term_Reversal_at_Technical_Confluence_body_audusd.png, EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“I’m still playing the risk on/off waves through the AUDUSD. I’m bearish but less so on weakness and more so on strength. Trade with the larger trend but decrease size on weakness at support and increase size on strength at resistance. If the Sunday night high doesn’t hold, then I would not be involved in the short side. Focus would shift to resistance between 10085 and 10140.”

At the current juncture, one must consider a bullish triangle from the 6/7 high. Even under this scenario, the AUDUSD would trade lower into 9880-9915 before finding support.

EURUSD – 60 Minute Bars

EURUSD_Short_Term_Reversal_at_Technical_Confluence_body_eurusd.png, EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I initiated a EURUSD short this morning at 12540 (as per Twitter @JamieSaettele). Short term resistance extends into 12590 but the pop on retail sales into congestion and the 50% retracement of the decline from 12667 was enough for me to go short. A loose target for the EURUSD is 12385-12410.

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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