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AUD and NZD Trading Levels and USDJPY Yield Differential Record

AUD and NZD Trading Levels and USDJPY Yield Differential Record

2012-05-29 13:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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US traders return from the Memorial Day to a sizeable bounce in ‘risk’ (USD drop, especially against the AUD and NZD). The bounce probably composes the beginning of a larger and much needed correction. My trading plan then will focus on being long risk FX (AUDUSD and NZDUSD) for the next few % before the next bear leg in early June. I’m also closely monitoring the USDJPY / US yield situation.

AUDUSD 240 Minute

AUD_and_NZD_Trading_Levels_and_USDJPY_Yield_Differential_Record_body_audusd.png, AUD and NZD Trading Levels and USDJPY Yield Differential Record

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Support is expected from last week’s close to last night’s low (9755-9800). Longs are favored, especially below 9800, towards 9935/65. 10020 is considered an aggressive bullish target but also the ideal level to initiate shorts for resumption of the larger bear.

NZDUSD 240 Minute

AUD_and_NZD_Trading_Levels_and_USDJPY_Yield_Differential_Record_body_nzdusd.png, AUD and NZD Trading Levels and USDJPY Yield Differential Record

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Support is expected from last week’s close to last night’s low (7835-7580). Longs are favored, especially below 7580, towards 7685-7750. 7810 is considered an aggressive bullish target but also the ideal level to initiate shorts for resumption of the larger bear.

USDJPY (Black) and 10-year Yield Differential (Red)

AUD_and_NZD_Trading_Levels_and_USDJPY_Yield_Differential_Record_body_usdjpy.png, AUD and NZD Trading Levels and USDJPY Yield Differential Record

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The chart above depicts USDJPY and the difference between 10 year yields on US and Japanese paper. Lows in the yield differential have tended to occur before large rallies in the exchange rate. The differential reached a record low last week of .85 (in line with the September 2011 low). USDJPY supports are 7900 and 7830.

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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