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Markets Held Hostage Awaiting FOMC

Markets Held Hostage Awaiting FOMC

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

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Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

Morning Notes:

Markets are awaiting Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow. As a result, significant moves are unlikely until tomorrow. Little has changed regarding current trend and pattern.

EURUSD – Look lower towards 12900 and channel support. Watch the channel closely as a drop below would be a ‘tell’ that the decline from 13379 is a 3rd wave rather than a C wave. Resistance extends to 13250 and 13379 is the key level (below is bearish).

Markets_Held_Hostage_Awaiting_FOMC_body_eurusd.png, Markets Held Hostage Awaiting FOMC

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Is testing a huge level defined by the 10/31/11 high and 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high. I’d be surprised if this level gives way easily.

Markets_Held_Hostage_Awaiting_FOMC_body_gbpusd.png, Markets Held Hostage Awaiting FOMC

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – CPI was good enough for a test of 10250 but not 10225. Volatility is the lowest in years which is certainly not conducive to breakouts. 10464 remains the important level for the larger trend although exceeding 10390 would significantly diminish confidence in the bearish bias.

Markets_Held_Hostage_Awaiting_FOMC_body_audusd.png, Markets Held Hostage Awaiting FOMC

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – The US 10 year made a new high Monday to create divergence with the Yen. This was the trigger I was waiting for. Despite equities appearing vulnerable, reward/risk justifies longs here. It may take several attempts to align with the longer term USDJPY bull trend.

Markets_Held_Hostage_Awaiting_FOMC_body_usdjpy.png, Markets Held Hostage Awaiting FOMC

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.