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Euro Rolls Over from Well Defended 13200

Euro Rolls Over from Well Defended 13200

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

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Morning Notes:

EURUSD – The correction may be complete as the rally from 13035 reversed following a 50% retracement of the decline from 13380. The turn also occurred at the 4/3 low and 20 day average. In other words, the recent top is well defended. A top that forms at a confluence of technical levels (rather than an arbitrary level) is more likely to remain in place.

Euro_Rolls_Over_from_Well_Defended_13200_body_eurusd.png, Euro Rolls Over from Well Defended 13200

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – No change from yesterday – “The rally from the low has extended but treating strength as corrective is appropriate given the 5 wave decline from 16062. Currently testing the 61.8% retracement of the decline price should turn lower now if the larger trend did indeed reverse last week (don’t forget that a WEEKLY key reversal formed last week).”

Euro_Rolls_Over_from_Well_Defended_13200_body_gbpusd.png, Euro Rolls Over from Well Defended 13200

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – The April high at 10464 is the line in the sand for AUDUSD bears. Exceeding that level would shift focus to 10510 and 10595 (former supports). As long as price is below 10464, the trend is considered down and focus remains on the year to date low at 10145. Resistance is bolstered at the yesterday’s high by the underside of former trendline support, channel resistance, 20 day average, and 200 day average.

Euro_Rolls_Over_from_Well_Defended_13200_body_audusd.png, Euro Rolls Over from Well Defended 13200

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – Volatility has contracted to the point that price closed above its 2nd standard deviation band (20 day) yesterday. This is worth noting because the initial break of a tight range is often a false break (this was noted with the USDJPY back in December and January). The pop above 8287 may have completed the advance from 8060.

Euro_Rolls_Over_from_Well_Defended_13200_body_nzdusd.png, Euro Rolls Over from Well Defended 13200

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.