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Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

2012-03-21 13:17:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Failure of the rally during European hours just shy of the 3/8 high / 61.8% retracement of the decline from 13485 suggests a vulnerable market in the near term. Near term focus is on 13170/90.

GBPUSD – Has completed 5 waves up from 15602 so look lower but in a correction towards 15725/50 before the larger bull trend resumes.

Tight_US_Dollar_Ranges_Await_Resolution_body_gbpusd.png, Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – The larger bullish count is valid as long as price remains above 10420. A drop below would negate the larger bullish bias and shift focus to 10250.

NZDUSD – Similar to the AUDUSD, a 4th wave interpretation of the decline from 8470 is valid as long as price is above 8060. The combination of support from the Elliott channel / 38.2% retracement of the rally from 7460 and daily key reversal last Thursday is strong bullish evidence. As such, a break of 8060 would be all the more impressive and shift focus to 7950/80.

Tight_US_Dollar_Ranges_Await_Resolution_body_usdjpy.png, Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

USDJPYNo change – “Focus for the month remains 8550, which is defined by the 2011 high and confluence of Fibonacci extensions (100% extension of 7602-8162 / 8001 and 261.8% extension of 8001-8187 / 8058). Bulls are favored against the 3/13 low of 8195 (the break above Monday’s high however enables shorter term traders to move risk up to 8300).”

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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