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  • 🇺🇸 Industrial Production YoY (MAY) Actual: 16.3% Previous: 16.5%
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  • Combine some modest Dollar strength pre-FOMC and a slide from the Sterling after its run of data and $GBPUSD looks like it is tempting fate on a head-and-shoulders pattern. Dubious of follow through until tomorrow though
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Industrial Production MoM (MAY) due at 13:15 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.7%
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  • May US retail sales miss expectations at -1.3% vs -0.7% exp (m/m). Core misses as well, -0.7% vs +0.4% exp. But a look beneath the hood tells a familiar story: supply chain constraints have lifted prices, so consumers are spending less.
  • 🇺🇸 PPI MoM (MAY) Actual: 0.8% Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.6%
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Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Failure of the rally during European hours just shy of the 3/8 high / 61.8% retracement of the decline from 13485 suggests a vulnerable market in the near term. Near term focus is on 13170/90.

GBPUSD – Has completed 5 waves up from 15602 so look lower but in a correction towards 15725/50 before the larger bull trend resumes.

Tight_US_Dollar_Ranges_Await_Resolution_body_gbpusd.png, Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – The larger bullish count is valid as long as price remains above 10420. A drop below would negate the larger bullish bias and shift focus to 10250.

NZDUSD – Similar to the AUDUSD, a 4th wave interpretation of the decline from 8470 is valid as long as price is above 8060. The combination of support from the Elliott channel / 38.2% retracement of the rally from 7460 and daily key reversal last Thursday is strong bullish evidence. As such, a break of 8060 would be all the more impressive and shift focus to 7950/80.

Tight_US_Dollar_Ranges_Await_Resolution_body_usdjpy.png, Tight US Dollar Ranges Await Resolution

USDJPY –No change – “Focus for the month remains 8550, which is defined by the 2011 high and confluence of Fibonacci extensions (100% extension of 7602-8162 / 8001 and 261.8% extension of 8001-8187 / 8058). Bulls are favored against the 3/13 low of 8195 (the break above Monday’s high however enables shorter term traders to move risk up to 8300).”

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.