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USDJPY Bull Trend Focus on 8550

USDJPY Bull Trend Focus on 8550

2012-03-14 12:24:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

Morning Notes:

EURUSD – The downside remains favored and risk on shorts can be moved to 13190. Levels of interest are the 2/16 low at 12974, 100% extension of the 13485-13103 decline at 12900, and 1/13 high at 12878. Yesterday’s outside day has been broken to the downside, which is bearish. The tests are below (Test 1 would be closing the position after 1 day…test 2 after 2 days, etc.). The rule tested is to go long at the high of the outside day and short at the low of the outside day only if triggered on the day after the outside day.

Test

Total Trades

% Profitable

Win/Loss Ratio

Avg Trade

Avg Winning Trade

Avg Losing Trade

10

175

45.71

1.38

13.49

209.66

(151.71)

9

181

46.41

1.39

15.20

196.09

(141.44)

8

187

45.99

1.42

14.52

180.34

(126.68)

7

190

46.32

1.46

17.00

176.73

(120.80)

6

199

43.72

1.46

8.74

173.48

(119.22)

5

205

44.88

1.40

8.96

163.21

(116.62)

4

211

46.45

1.29

7.19

145.71

(112.95)

3

218

48.17

1.18

5.16

126.61

(107.70)

2

227

48.02

0.99

(4.07)

97.54

(98.76)

1

237

47.68

1.20

3.76

94.77

(79.18)

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – “Use Monday’s high as the pivot. In other words, a drop to the low 10400s or even channel support below 10400 is possible as long as price is below 10575. Exceeding 10575 would suggest that a tradable low is in place.” Price is at weekly lows and focus is on channel support at about 10390 today.

USDJPY_Bull_Trend_Focus_on_8550_body_audusd.png, USDJPY Bull Trend Focus on 8550

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – I wrote last night that “the NZDUSD has taken out Monday’s high at 8200 which increases the probability that a low is in place for the week. Confidence in the upside is low as AUDUSD action is not confirming a bullish bias. Regardless, a cautious bullish bias is warranted against Monday’s low.” Monday’s low has been broken which negates the bullish bias and shifts focus to 8080.

USDJPY_Bull_Trend_Focus_on_8550_body_nzdusd.png, USDJPY Bull Trend Focus on 8550

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY –The next objective is 8550 (interim resistance at 8400). Swing players can move the stop up to Tuesday’s low at 8195. Shorter term traders should keep risk to last night’s low at 8285. Short term support is 8310/30. A general tip; in strong uptrends, markets tend to make their lows at opens and highs at closes (at multiple degrees of trends…monthly, weekly, daily).

USDJPY_Bull_Trend_Focus_on_8550_body_usdjpy.png, USDJPY Bull Trend Focus on 8550

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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