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US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

2012-03-05 15:01:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

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Morning Notes:

EURUSD – The extent of the decline from 13485 is enough to suggest that the 3 wave rally from the January low is complete and that the longer term bear trend has resumed. Rallies should be sold. Resistance is clustered between 13240 and 13280. Keep stops above 13360. 13100/15 is interim support.

US_Dollar_on_Offensive_as_Reversal_Evidence_is_Confirmed_body_eurusd.png, US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD rally to a new high (above end of wave A) satisfies minimum requirements for wave C. Near term, look lower in order for the decline to complete 5 waves from 15991.

US_Dollar_on_Offensive_as_Reversal_Evidence_is_Confirmed_body_gbpusd.png, US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – A short term objective is 10650 but the false bullish break last week is a classic trap that will most likely be resolved with a sharp decline and a run on stops under 10595. A break would target 10525 and 10450. 10725/60 is resistance.

US_Dollar_on_Offensive_as_Reversal_Evidence_is_Confirmed_body_audusd.png, US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – The high last week was registered right at the line that is used to estimate the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern (line parallel to neckline is extended from left shoulder). Of course, we don’t know if a multiyear head and shoulders is unfolding but this method is anticipatory. The drop below 8244 shifts focus to 8140 and 8080. 8270 is resistance.

US_Dollar_on_Offensive_as_Reversal_Evidence_is_Confirmed_body_nzdusd.png, US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – As long as price is above 8080, look higher towards 8220 (May 2011 high) and 8550 (100% extension of February rally and April 2011 high). A drop below 8080 would delay the bullish outlook and probably lead to a deeper drop below 8000.

US_Dollar_on_Offensive_as_Reversal_Evidence_is_Confirmed_body_usdjpy.png, US Dollar on Offensive as Reversal Evidence is Confirmed

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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