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Dollar Vulnerable…Especially Against Yen

Dollar Vulnerable…Especially Against Yen

2012-02-29 14:12:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos

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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

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Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Is crawling higher and, barring intraday impulsive downside behavior, respect additional bullish potential towards Fibonacci objectives of 13584 (100% extension of 12623-13234 rally) and 13627 (61.8% retracement of decline from the 10/27/11 high). The former level intersects short and long term channels tomorrow. A rally to the mentioned level(s) will probably complete a corrective advance from the January low. In other words, I expect to flip my bias from long to short within the next few days.

Dollar_Vulnerable_Especially_Against_Yen__body_eurusd.png, Dollar Vulnerable…Especially Against Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Has broken to a February high and focus remains on the 61.8% extension of the 15233-15928 rally at 16074, the October 2011 high and 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high at 16167 and 100% extension at 16344. Support is 15875-15910. Look higher.

AUDUSD – The AUDUSD has traded to a February high and focus remains on the 2011 high at 11080, and typical Fibonacci relationships; Wave 5 = 1 at 11153 and wave 5 = 61.8% of waves 1-3 at 11236. These levels intersect the EW channel on March 7th and March 15th. Risk on longs can be moved to yesterday’s low (10728). Support today is 10790-10800. A short term objective is the 161.8% extension of the 10597-10754 rally, at 10905.

Dollar_Vulnerable_Especially_Against_Yen__body_audusd.png, Dollar Vulnerable…Especially Against Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – I wrote yesterday to “expect the rally to accelerate in the next few days. A short term objective above 8428 is the 161.8% extension of the 8263-8396 rally, at 8537 (the 8/31/11 high is at 8371). With the AUDNZD bouncing from support, I am more bullish the AUDUSD than the NZDUSD at these levels.” I was wrong to doubt that the NZD would outperform its neighbor but continue to look higher towards the mid to upper 8300s. Stops on longs can be moved to 8345 (yesterday’s low) and 8410/20 is support today.

USDJPY – No change – “A 5 wave advance from the 2/1 low is most likely complete in the USDJPY at Sunday evening’s high (8166). Expect weakness on balance over the next 1 to 2 weeks in order to complete a corrective 3 wave decline from 8166. Expect support at 7935/50 (2/20 low and 38.2% retracement of the 5 wave rally). A deeper decline could reach 7820/30 (61.8% retracement and breakout level).”

Dollar_Vulnerable_Especially_Against_Yen__body_usdjpy.png, Dollar Vulnerable…Especially Against Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDCAD – Welcome back to these pages USDCAD. The break lower is from a triangle and as mentioned in recent weeks in the Daily Technicals, “the decline from the October high is viewed as a correction (A, triangle B, C) that is expected to terminate near 9725/75.” Resistance today is 9900/10 and the downside is favored below 9985.

Dollar_Vulnerable_Especially_Against_Yen__body_usdcad.png, Dollar Vulnerable…Especially Against Yen

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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