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Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

2012-02-28 14:12:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Yesterday’s drop has nearly been retraced and there is no change to the call for “an extension of the rally towards Fibonacci objectives of 13584 (100% extension of 12623-13234 rally) and 13627 (61.8% retracement of decline from the 10/27/11 high). The former level intersects short and long term channels on Thursday. A rally to the mentioned level(s) will probably complete a corrective advance from the January low. In other words, I expect to flip to short in early March. Support today is 13420.

Euro_Reversal_is_Likely_Within_the_Next_Few_Days_body_eurusd.png, Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – A B wave low within an A-B-C advance from the January low is probably in place. Objectives are the 61.8% extension of the 15233-15928 rally (wave A) at 16074, the October 2011 high and 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high at 16167 and 100% extension at 16344. Look higher into month end.

AUDUSDA 4th wave decline is probably complete at this week’s low and focus is on the 2011 high at 11080, and typical Fibonacci relationships; Wave 5 = 1 at 11153 and wave 5 = 61.8% of waves 1-3 at 11236. These levels intersect the EW channel on March 7th and March 15th. Risk on longs can be moved to yesterday’s low (10650). Support today is 10720. A short term objective above 10844 is the 161.8% extension of the 10597-10754 rally, at 10905.

Euro_Reversal_is_Likely_Within_the_Next_Few_Days_body_audusd.png, Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD has traded in a corrective manner for most of February. Specifically, the pattern is probably a 4th wave and the upside is favored in wave 5. If this assessment is correct, then expect the rally to accelerate in the next few days. A short term objective above 8428 is the 161.8% extension of the 8263-8396 rally, at 8537 (the 8/31/11 high is at 8371). With the AUDNZD bouncing from support, I am more bullish the AUDUSD than the NZDUSD at these levels.

USDJPY – A 5 wave advance from the 2/1 low is most likely complete in the USDJPY at Sunday evening’s high (8166). Expect weakness on balance over the next 1 to 2 weeks in order to complete a corrective 3 wave decline from 8166. Expect support at 7935/50 (2/20 low and 38.2% retracement of the 5 wave rally). A deeper decline could reach 7820/30 (61.8% retracement and breakout level).

Euro_Reversal_is_Likely_Within_the_Next_Few_Days_body_usdjpy.png, Euro Reversal is Likely in the Next Few Days

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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