US Dollar is Vulnerable for the Rest of February…at Minimum

2012-02-23 13:54:00 Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

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Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

Morning Notes:

EURUSD – Is breaking higher and an extension of the rally that began in January remains favored towards Fibonacci objectives near 13600. This level intersects channels in early March (late next week). Risk on any longs should be kept to 13170 (Monday low). A drop below would shift focus to 13115.

US_Dollar_is_Vulnerable_for_the_Rest_of_February_at_Minimum_body_eurusd.png, US Dollar is Vulnerable for the Rest of February…at Minimum

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – With the EURUSD breaking higher, consider the possibility that a low is in place for the GBPUSD as per the below count. Remember, the drop into 15644 may have completed wave B within the A-B-C rally from the January low. Objectives in the coming weeks are above 16000.

US_Dollar_is_Vulnerable_for_the_Rest_of_February_at_Minimum_body_gbpusd.png, US Dollar is Vulnerable for the Rest of February…at Minimum

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – The turn higher in the AUDUSD increases confidence in the 4th wave interpretation. 10650/70 is near term support and 10745 interim resistance.

US_Dollar_is_Vulnerable_for_the_Rest_of_February_at_Minimum_body_audusd.png, US Dollar is Vulnerable for the Rest of February…at Minimum

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – The situation is similar to that of the AUDUSD in that sideways trade since 2/8 is viewed as corrective. The invalidation level for bulls is the 2/1 low at 8212. Look higher into month end. 8315 is support and 8385 is interim resistance.

US_Dollar_is_Vulnerable_for_the_Rest_of_February_at_Minimum_body_nzdusd.png, US Dollar is Vulnerable for the Rest of February…at Minimum

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – From last night – “Daily RSI is above 80, which has occurred just 9 times in the last 20 years. The tendency after a reading of 80 or greater is for consolidation/weakness before the uptrend resumes. The average move 3 days after a reading above 80 is -39 pips. The average move after 10 days is +155 pips. Going on levels, the upside is favored for the rest of the week above 7935 (Monday low). A drop below would trigger weakness towards 7865/95. The next upside level of interest isn’t until the July 2011 high of 8147.” I like longs between 7960/85 with a stop under 7935 for the rest of the week.