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Euro Base Forms for Next Bull Leg

Euro Base Forms for Next Bull Leg

2012-02-13 14:34:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Morning Notes:

In general, expect more 2 way action during the US session as is typical following a sharp gap down.

US Indices – Have completely retraced Friday’s decline. Friday’s lows can be used as a pivot for the larger trend (bullish above and bearish below). Supports for the S&P e-mini today are 1345.50 and 1342.75. Watch the July high at 1356.48 in the futures for tiring in the overall trend.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Near term structure lacks clarity at this point (several valid interpretations) but the contracting nature of price action from the 2011 low may be a large triangle. With this in mind, the USDOLLAR could still test slightly lower levels (November low) before turning higher for several months.

Euro_Base_Forms_for_Next_Bull_Leg__body_usdollar.png, Euro Base Forms for Next Bull Leg

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Friday’s decline is viewed as a correction within the larger advance from the January low. Objectives remain the mid 13400s. The 50% retracement of the decline from the October high comes in at 13435 and bullish channel resistance is just above that level. Favor the upside against Friday’s low.

Euro_Base_Forms_for_Next_Bull_Leg__body_eurusd.png, Euro Base Forms for Next Bull Leg

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD – Suspicions that the AUDUSD decline would prove corrective have been confirmed as the decline from the top is in 3 waves. Expectations are for additional strength towards 10900 and perhaps a test of the record free floating high at 11080. 10720 is short term support and longs area favored against Friday’s low.

NZDUSD – The decline reversed right at Elliott channel support on Friday. Expectations are for strength to extend above last week’s high and perhaps towards the September high just above 8500. 8320 is support.

Euro_Base_Forms_for_Next_Bull_Leg__body_nzdusd.png, Euro Base Forms for Next Bull Leg

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – The advance is unfolding in an impulsive manner. Use hiccups to add to longs. Support is 7740 and risk on longs should be kept to 7670. Of note is the 200 day average just above current price at 7808 and the December/January highs at 7830.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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