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USD Weakness Continues into February

USD Weakness Continues into February

2012-02-01 14:11:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

January Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF (bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-none

RSI Signals Last Week-CADJPY (bearish) GBPCHF USDCHF (bullish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

Monday

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Friday

2

3

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6

RV

RV

RV

RV

RV CADCHF

RS

RS GBPUSD USDCAD

RS

RS

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USDCHF

9

10

11

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13

RV CHFJPY EURGBP

RV

RV

RV AUDNZD AUDCHF

RV GBPJPY

EURJPY USDCHF

EURNZD EURAUD

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RS

RS

NZDJPY

RS

RS EURGBP

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19 RS EURUSD NZDCHF

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RV NZDCAD

RV

RV AUDNZD

AUDCHF CADCHF

RV

RS CADCHF CHFJPY

CHFJPY EURAUD

RS

RS

EURCAD EURJPY

EURCAD EURGBP

RS GBPCAD GBPUSD

EURUSD USDCHF

EURJPY EURNZD

23

24 RV GBPCHF

25

26

27

RS CADCHF CADJPY

RS AUDCHF CADCHF

RV

RV

RS AUDCHF EURAUD

CHFJPY EURCAD

EURAUD EURCAD

NZDCHF

EURJPY EURUSD

EURUSD GBPCAD

RS EURCAD

RS

GBPUSD

30

31

RV

RV USDCAD

RS EURNZD NZDCHF

RS GBPAUD GBPCAD

Morning Comments:

S&P (futures) – Remains firm although price is still below the 1/26 high (1329.75). The early month opening range will be critical in determining the bias for February. Resistance above 1329.75 is not until the July highs at 1336.25 and 1343.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Continues to slide and is nearing the confluence of the 61.8% retracement and series of November lows from 9665 to 9690. Remember, the probability of a reversal increases with the beginning of a new month.

USD_Weakness_Continues_into_February_body_usdollar.png, USD Weakness Continues into February

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Support today is 13115/50. Other than that, there is no change from last night – “The decline from the 1/27 high is left as a 3 wave decline that consists of 2 equal bear legs. What’s more, support at today’s low is reinforced by resistance from last week. In summary, price pattern remains constructive towards the early December congestion zone that begins at 13280.”

GBPUSD – Is up for the 12th day in the last 13 days (today of course is not over yet though). This sequence has not occurred since 8/12/05 (GBPUSD fell 300 pips over the next few weeks thereafter). Prior to 2005, one must go back to the bull run of 2002/2003 to find instances in which the GBPUSD was 12 of 13 days. Price has reached resistance from November pivots (15868/88).

AUDUSD – Price pattern is constructive above Monday’s low (10569). Levels to watch moving forward are the October high at 10750 (channel resistance is at this level today as well) and a Fibonacci extension at 10824. Support today is 10655/80.

NZDUSD – NZDUSD was the strongest performer of any major FX cross (USD or not) in January, advancing more than 6%. Price is nearing September pivots from September at 8340/90. A level of interest above there is a Fibonacci extension at 8449. Support today is 8275-8300. A drop under 8212 is needed to trigger a bearish bias.

USDJPY – “The spike higher this week most likely completed a triangle that began at the August 1 low. The implications are for a collapse to record lows.” Resistance is 7640. A move above 7677 would shift focus to 7730.

USDCHF - Near term pattern is the exact inverse as the EURUSD. That is, the rally from the low is in 3 waves to this point which is corrective and leaves price vulnerable to additional losses towards the 11/30 low at 9065. Resistance today is 9185 and only a move above 9250 would trigger a bullish bias.

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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