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New Zealand Dollar Reaches Fibonacci Confluence

New Zealand Dollar Reaches Fibonacci Confluence

2012-01-31 14:35:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

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Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-none

RSI Signals Last Week-CADJPY (bearish) GBPCHF USDCHF (bullish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

New_Zealand_Dollar_Reaches_Fibonacci_Confluence_body_013112table.jpg, New Zealand Dollar Reaches Fibonacci Confluence

Morning Comments:

S&P – 1297.50 held yesterday but the topping scenario remains favored - “Daily key reversals formed Thursday in all 3 major US indices and their respective futures contracts. The entire ‘FOMC rally’ from last Wednesday has been retraced which strongly suggests that event was exhaustive in nature.”

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Continues to slide and the next level of support isn’t until the confluence of the 61.8% retracement and series of November lows from 9665 to 9690. Remember, the probability of a reversal increases with the beginning of a new month.

EURUSD – Friday’s high registered just above the November low at 13212 and right at a Fibonacci confluence at 13233/38 (161.8% extension of 12875-13062 / 12930 and 100% extension of 12623-12986 / 12875). 12985, 12930, and 12875 are downside levels of interest this week. Resistance above Friday’s high is 13280.

New_Zealand_Dollar_Reaches_Fibonacci_Confluence_body_eurusd.png, New Zealand Dollar Reaches Fibonacci Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Is up for the 11th day in the last 12 and has exceeded the December high (15774). The 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high is potential resistance at 15811. 15740 is support today.

AUDUSD – Is pressing against last week’s high (10687) and a pop above would expose the October high at 10750. The NZDUSD has already traded through its October high. This divergence (new NZDUSD high, AUDUSD not confirming) is common at turns.

NZDUSD –Has reached the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high and 161.8% extension of 7370-7878 / 7461. Daily RSI is back above 7500 (albeit intraday), which has indicated at least near term tops in recent years.

USDJPY – “The spike higher this week most likely completed a triangle that began at the August 1 low. The implications are for a collapse to record lows. Resistance is 7690 7730 and 7755.

New_Zealand_Dollar_Reaches_Fibonacci_Confluence_body_USDJPY.png, New Zealand Dollar Reaches Fibonacci Confluence

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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