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Stocks Retrace Entire FOMC Rally

Stocks Retrace Entire FOMC Rally

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-none

RSI Signals Last Week-CADJPY (bearish) GBPCHF USDCHF (bullish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

Stocks_Retrace_Entire_FOMC_Rally_body_013012table.jpg, Stocks Retrace Entire FOMC Rally

Morning Comments:

S&P – Daily key reversals formed Thursday in all 3 major US indices and their respective futures contracts. The entire ‘FOMC rally’ from last Wednesday has been retraced which strongly suggests that event was exhaustive in nature. Levels to watch (futures) are 1315.75, 1309.25, 1307, 1297.50, 1290, 1281.25. I favor short positions on strength.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Has rebounded sharply after dipping below the 50% retracement of the rally from the October low. 9830/40 is resistance and 9785 is support. Remember, the probability of a reversal increases with the beginning of a new month.

EURUSD – Has retraced Friday’s advance. The Fibonacci confluence discussed last week (13233/38 (c=a and 161.8% extension of wave i of c)) pinpointed an important top. Resistance is now 13120/35. Supports are 13060 and 12990.

Stocks_Retrace_Entire_FOMC_Rally_body_eurusd.png, Stocks Retrace Entire FOMC Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD - Extended its rally to 10 consecutive days on Friday (defining as close > open)! My open/close data extends to 1998 and since then there have only been 3 other instances in which the GBPUSD has rallied for 9 consecutive days, 12/1/04, 8/3/10, and 1/19/11 and never a 10 day rally. Supports are 15630 15600 and 15515.

AUDUSD – I wrote Friday to “respect potential for one more high next week. I do have my doubts however since the NZDUSD has already traded into its resistance zone and tested its October high. This divergence (new NZDUSD high, AUDUSD not confirming) is common at turns. In any case, 10540/75 is support.” The AUDUSD has dropped below 10540 and focus is now on the 200 day average, 20 day average and support line just above 10400. 10575-10600 is resistance.

NZDUSD –The NZDUSD drop is approaching support from former resistance at 8140. A drop under there shifts focus to 8075 and 8040. Last week’s high (8249) is within the expected topping zone (October high / 161.8% extension of the rally from the November low / 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high). 8200 is now resistance.

USDJPY – “The spike higher this week most likely completed a triangle that began at the August 1 low. The implications are for a collapse to record lows. Resistance is 7690 7730 and 7755.

Stocks_Retrace_Entire_FOMC_Rally_body_USDJPY.png, Stocks Retrace Entire FOMC Rally

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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