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6 Month USDJPY Bearish Triangle Possibly Complete

6 Month USDJPY Bearish Triangle Possibly Complete

2012-01-27 14:10:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-CADCHF (bearish) EURCAD (bullish) EURJPY (bullish)


Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

6_Month_USDJPY_Bearish_Triangle_Possibly_Complete_body_012612table.jpg, 6 Month USDJPY Bearish Triangle Possibly Complete

Morning Comments:

S&P – Daily key reversals formed yesterday in all 3 major US indices and their respective futures contracts. The entire post fed rally from Wednesday (exhaustion, top on news?) has nearly been retraced. Downside levels of interest are this week’s low at (index levels) 1306.06, former resistance at 1296.46, and 1277.58.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Continues to slide and has dropped below the December low of 9786. The next potential support is the 50% retracement of the rally from the October low at 9766 and the confluence of November lows and the 61.8% below 9700. A short term channel is holding as well but additional evidence is needed to favor longs. Resistance for Friday is 9835 and 9870.

EURUSD – Structure from 12875 is probably a diagonal in order to complete the 3 wave rally from the low. The implications are for a dip into 13050 (wave iv) before the final surge into the mid 13200s completes advance next week. Levels of note are the November low at 13212 and a Fibonacci confluence at 13233/38 (c=a and 161.8% extension of wave i of c).

6_Month_USDJPY_Bearish_Triangle_Possibly_Complete_body_eurusd.png, 6 Month USDJPY Bearish Triangle Possibly Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD - My open/close data extends to 1998 and since then there have only been 3 other instances in which the GBPUSD has rallied for 9 consecutive days, 12/1/04, 8/3/10, and 1/19/11. In all 3 instances, the GBPUSD fell at least 200 pips within the next 6 days. Support for Friday is 15630 and 15600. Resistance above 15735 is 15780.

AUDUSD – The pattern from the 1/24 low is probably unfolding in 5 waves. As such, respect potential for one more high next week. I do have my doubts however since the NZDUSD has already traded into its resistance zone and tested its October high. This divergence (new NZDUSD high, AUDUSD not confirming) is common at turns. In any case, 10540/75 is support.

NZDUSD –Has traded into 8240/80 (October high / 161.8% extension of the rally from the November low / 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high). This is a level where one should expect a top. See last night’s technicals (link at top of this page) for commentary on daily RSI.

USDJPY – The spike higher this week most likely completed a triangle that began at the August 1 low. The implications are for a collapse to record lows. 7730/60 is resistance.

6_Month_USDJPY_Bearish_Triangle_Possibly_Complete_body_usdjpy.png, 6 Month USDJPY Bearish Triangle Possibly Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.