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USDOLLAR at December Low

USDOLLAR at December Low

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

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December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-CADCHF (bearish) EURCAD (bullish) EURJPY (bullish)


Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

USDOLLAR_at_December_Low_body_012612table.jpg, USDOLLAR at December Low

Morning Comments:

S&P – The party continues as the Fed is bent on debasing the USD and anything denominated in USD goes up. The next levels of interest are the July highs at 1336.25 and 1343 (futures) and 1347 and 1356.48 (index). 1320.25 is support and a drop under 1315.75 would trigger a reversal.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Continues to slide and has dropped below the December low of 9786. The next potential support is the 50% retracement of the rally from the October low at 9766 and the confluence of November lows and the 61.8% below 9700.

USDOLLAR_at_December_Low_body_usdollar.png, USDOLLAR at December Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Yesterday’s move does feel like exhaustion but exhaustion can last several days. Support is 13135 and 13060 and the next upside objective is the area that surrounds 13200 (12/21 high, 11/25 low, measured levels at 13230/40).

AUDUSD – The AUDUSD continues to soar and is nearing channel resistance (10700 today) as well as the October high at 10752. 10575 and 10620 are now supports.

USDOLLAR_at_December_Low_body_audusd.png, USDOLLAR at December Low

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD –Is nearing 8240/80 (October high / 161.8% extension of the rally from the November low / 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high). One would expect strong resistance at this level. Support is now 8195 and 8150.

USDJPY – From last night – “The USDJPY reversed just shy of the 11/29 high (7828) and 200 day average (7835) today. Price did reach the 3rd standard deviation band on the daily (20 day lookback) for just the 25th time since 2000 and first time since the October 31 intervention. A simple back test shows that shorting the USDJPY at the close of the day in which it reached the 3rd std. dev band (and closing it 5 days later) would have yielded 10 wins and 6 losses (there are not 25 trades because the 5 day holding period results in overlapping days). The wins averaged 96.5 pips and the losses 112.6 pips. Structurally, respect the potential for one more high and a test of the November high at 7828.”

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.