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Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

2012-01-25 13:33:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-CADCHF (bearish) EURCAD (bullish) EURJPY (bullish)

RSI Signals Last Week-AUDJPY CADJPY NZDJPY NZDUSD SGDJPY (all bearish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

Euro_Focus_is_on_Monday_Low_body_012512table.jpg, Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Morning Comments:

S&P – Remains little changed. Recent dojis in the Dow and S&P (indexes) are consistent with a top. The last 4 days in the futures have closed 1310.50 1310.75 1311 and 1311.50. Evidence that favors a downturn from here includes (but is not limited to) the lowest NYSE short interest in 3 years, extreme put/call ratio, and divergence between the S&P and Nasdaq (futures – see below). The writing is on the wall. ES levels to watch are 1297.50, 1280, and 1266.

Euro_Focus_is_on_Monday_Low_body_nqes.png, Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): “Is back above 9904, which once again gives scope to a bullish outcome. The choppiness of late has been frustrating but this is the market’s way of clearing the forest so that the stampede can take place.” Resistance is 9940 and 9990.

EURUSD – The drop under 12950 shifts focus to 12875 and 12810. The decline may serve to correct an impulse from the 1/13 low. Short term resistance is 12975-13000.

Euro_Focus_is_on_Monday_Low_body_eurusd.png, Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – “Divergence with RSI on the hourly and the specter of a 5 wave structure from the 1/13 low warn of weakness, albeit in a corrective manner, before additional gains in February.” Focus is on 15450-15500.

AUDUSD – The bearish bias triggered on the drop below 10458 remains valid as focus is on 10350/85 (trendline support is in the middle of this zone today). 10480-10510 remains short term resistance and 10550 is the stop.

Euro_Focus_is_on_Monday_Low_body_audusd.png, Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD –I wrote last night that “price did carve out an inside day today at the 2nd standard deviation band, which warns of a reversal (setup against the Monday high). A drop below 8045 is required in order to trigger a downside bias towards 7980.” The NZDUSD has dropped under Monday’s low (triggering a bearish bias). 8070/90 is resistance.

USDJPY – “Has broken through the recent range (7650-7750), giving scope to an extension to the November high of 7828. Buy dips at support below 7760 with a stop under 7686.”

USDCAD – From last night – “the USDCAD inside day / gravestone doji pattern gives scope to a turn higher from the bottom of the December-January range. Keep risk to 10050.” Price is nearing the 1/23 high (10161) and a pop above (which is reinforced by the 20 day average) would shift focus to trendline resistance near 10240.

Euro_Focus_is_on_Monday_Low_body_usdcad.png, Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDCHF – From last night – “The USDCHF put the 12/21 low to test today and formed a doji today, giving scope to a bounce.” An advance would probably serve to correct an impulse (5 waves) from 9574. The implications are for a return to 9380.

Euro_Focus_is_on_Monday_Low_body_usdchf.png, Euro Focus on Monday Low, Resistance Up to 13000

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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