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Dollar Crushed to Start Week

Dollar Crushed to Start Week

2012-01-23 14:10:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-CADCHF (bearish) EURCAD (bullish) EURJPY (bullish)


Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

Dollar_Crushed_to_Start_Week_body_012312table.jpg, Dollar Crushed to Start Week

Morning Comments:

S&P – Unchanged from Friday’s close – “price has slightly exceeded the trendline that extends off of the May and July highs but the index is right at the trendline. The most striking observation at the current juncture is the non confirmation between the Nasdaq (e-mini future) and S&P (e-mini future). Such divergences have marked important turns since the 2009 low.”

Dollar_Crushed_to_Start_Week_body_nqes.png, Dollar Crushed to Start Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Has traded below the early January low and negated the bullish triangle pattern in the process. The next level of interest on the downside is the 12/8 low at 9786. 9880-9905 is now resistance.

EURUSD – has powered through channel resistance and is approaching the critical January high of 13076. A bearish outcome is possible as long as price is below there but exceeding 13076 would shift focus to 13200. 12950/85 is support.

Dollar_Crushed_to_Start_Week_body_eurusd.png, Dollar Crushed to Start Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

GBPUSD – Shorts remain favored with a stop above the early month high of 15670. From an Elliott perspective, the rally from the 1/13 low composes wave iv within an ending diagonal.

AUDUSD – After exceeding the multi month resistance line on Friday, price is nearing the 100% extension of the rally from the November low, at 10577. Channel resistance resides at about 10650 today.

Dollar_Crushed_to_Start_Week_body_audusd.png, Dollar Crushed to Start Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

NZDUSD – Has exceeded corrective channel resistance as well as the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high. The next cluster of resistance isn’t until 8240/80 (October high / 161.8% extension of the rally from the November low / 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2011 high). 8100 is short term support.

Dollar_Crushed_to_Start_Week_body_nzdusd.png, Dollar Crushed to Start Week

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

USDJPY – Respect the range of 7650-7760. A downside break would shift focus to new record lows while an upside break exposes 7630 (November and December highs).

USDCAD – Remains under pressure. Respect the downside as long as price is under last night’s high (10161). The December low at 10051 is of interest.

USDCHF – Has dropped below the early January low and negated the constructive structure. There is potential for a bounce from the 12/21 low (9242) and 9300 is now resistance. A break under 9242 targets 9065 (11/30 low).

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.