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AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

2012-01-11 14:29:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-none

RSI Signals Last Week-GBPNZD (bullish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_011112table.jpg, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

Morning Comments:

S&P future – May still crawl higher into trendline resistance from the May and July highs (at 1307 today). Support for today’s US session is 1286.25-1282.75. A drop under 1274.50 would warn of a reversal. A drop under the 1/5 low at 1259.75 would signal a reversal.

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_spx500.png, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): I wrote last night that “the structure of the decline from 10039 suggests a bounce into 9983-10012 before a final drop into 9925 gives way to the next bull leg.” Having reached the upper end of resistance, expect a drop under 9946 to complete the corrective decline from 10039.

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_usdollar.png, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Appears to be completing a diagonal from the 12/21 high (13197). I am looking for one more low into the August 2010 low at 12590 before a reversal. Exceeding 12818 would suggest that the low is in place.

GBPUSD – “5 waves down from 15670 give scope to an eventual break below 15360 and probably a test of the October low at 15271.” Risk on shorts can be moved down to 15500.

AUDUSD – Support is expected just under 10250. The decline from 10351 would consist of 2 equal waves at 10246, the 50% retracement of the rally from 10145 is at 10248 and the area that surrounds 10250 was resistance on Monday. A break of 10380 or 10145 is needed in order to trigger the next move (higher targets 10445 and 10580, lower targets 10044 and 9863).

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_audusd.png, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

NZDUSD – Has exceeded the 1/3 high and focus is now on the 100% extension of the rally from 7370 at 7969 and the 11/7 high at 7997. Supports are 7915 and 7890.

USDJPY – The rally from 7660 and decline from 7733 probably compose wave a and b of an a-b-c corrective rally. The implications are for a rally into 7750 (100% extension of rally from 7660) before the larger downtrend resumes.

USDCAD – After reversing on Monday from the trendline that extends off of November and December highs, the USDCAD fell as low as 10139 this morning. Resistance is 10210, 10225, and 10247. A break of 10075 or 10319 is needed in order to trigger the next move.

USDCHF – Carved out a key reversal Monday at its highest level since February 2011. Structurally, the USDCHF may see one more high to complete a diagonal from 9243 but yesterday’s action is the first ‘reversal action’ since 12/15.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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