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AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (Innovative Tech. explains Key Reversals and RSI Signals)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

December Key Reversals-none

December RSI Signals-CADCHF GBPCHF NZDCHF USDCHF (all bearish)

Key Reversals Last Week-none

RSI Signals Last Week-GBPNZD (bullish)

Daily Key Reversals (RV) and RSI Signals (RS)

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_011112table.jpg, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

Morning Comments:

S&P future – May still crawl higher into trendline resistance from the May and July highs (at 1307 today). Support for today’s US session is 1286.25-1282.75. A drop under 1274.50 would warn of a reversal. A drop under the 1/5 low at 1259.75 would signal a reversal.

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_spx500.png, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): I wrote last night that “the structure of the decline from 10039 suggests a bounce into 9983-10012 before a final drop into 9925 gives way to the next bull leg.” Having reached the upper end of resistance, expect a drop under 9946 to complete the corrective decline from 10039.

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_usdollar.png, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Appears to be completing a diagonal from the 12/21 high (13197). I am looking for one more low into the August 2010 low at 12590 before a reversal. Exceeding 12818 would suggest that the low is in place.

GBPUSD – “5 waves down from 15670 give scope to an eventual break below 15360 and probably a test of the October low at 15271.” Risk on shorts can be moved down to 15500.

AUDUSD – Support is expected just under 10250. The decline from 10351 would consist of 2 equal waves at 10246, the 50% retracement of the rally from 10145 is at 10248 and the area that surrounds 10250 was resistance on Monday. A break of 10380 or 10145 is needed in order to trigger the next move (higher targets 10445 and 10580, lower targets 10044 and 9863).

AUDUSD_Support_Expected_at_10250_body_audusd.png, AUDUSD Support Expected at 10250

NZDUSD – Has exceeded the 1/3 high and focus is now on the 100% extension of the rally from 7370 at 7969 and the 11/7 high at 7997. Supports are 7915 and 7890.

USDJPY – The rally from 7660 and decline from 7733 probably compose wave a and b of an a-b-c corrective rally. The implications are for a rally into 7750 (100% extension of rally from 7660) before the larger downtrend resumes.

USDCAD – After reversing on Monday from the trendline that extends off of November and December highs, the USDCAD fell as low as 10139 this morning. Resistance is 10210, 10225, and 10247. A break of 10075 or 10319 is needed in order to trigger the next move.

USDCHF – Carved out a key reversal Monday at its highest level since February 2011. Structurally, the USDCHF may see one more high to complete a diagonal from 9243 but yesterday’s action is the first ‘reversal action’ since 12/15.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for

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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.