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USDOLLAR at Fibonacci Support

USDOLLAR at Fibonacci Support

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

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Morning Comments:

S&P future – Futures are at their highest since August 1st and approaching the 1300 figure. There is also trendline resistance from the May and July highs at 1307 today. Support for today’s US session is 1286.25-1282.75. A drop under 1274.50 would warn of a reversal.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Is testing the 50% retracement of the 9856-10039 rally at 9948. I’m on the lookout for formation of a low from the current level down to 9923 (former pivot and 61.8% retracement).

USDOLLAR_Support_body_usdollar.png, USDOLLAR at Fibonacci Support

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Is testing resistance from Friday’s high at 12812. 12840/50 is measured resistance and former congestion and potential resistance if reached. It is worth noting that the EURUSD nearly made a key reversal yesterday (volatility condition (day’s range >= 20 day ATR) was not met) but the EURGBP and EURJPY did make key reversals yesterday. Structurally, I am looking for one more low into the August 2010 low at 12590 before a violent reversal.

GBPUSD – 5 waves down from 15670 give scope to an eventual break below 15360 and probably a test of the October low at 15271. Additional strength would face resistance at 15525.

AUDUSD – Reversed before the 20 day average yesterday but a bearish outcome is possible below 10385 (shorts favored below there). Exceeding that level would shift focus to the 11/3 high at 10446 and a confluence of channel resistance and trendline resistance near 10500. 10275 is support today.

USDOLLAR_Support_body_audusd.png, USDOLLAR at Fibonacci Support

NZDUSD – Has exceeded the 1/3 high and focus is now on the 100% extension of the rally from 7370 at 7969 and the 11/7 high at 7997. Supports are 7915 and 7890.

USDJPY – The rally from 7660 and decline from 7733 probably compose wave a and b of an a-b-c corrective rally. The implications are for a rally into 7750 (100% extension of rally from 7660) before the larger downtrend resumes.

USDCAD – After reversing yesterday from the trendline that extends off of November and December highs, the USDCAD has plummeted into former support from 10170. Resistance is now 10210 and 10245.

USDOLLAR_Support_body_usdcad.png, USDOLLAR at Fibonacci Support

USDCHF – Carved out a key reversal yesterday at its highest level since February 2011. Structurally, the USDCHF may see one more high to complete a diagonal from 9243 but yesterday’s action is the first ‘reversal action’ since 12/15.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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