News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greek 20-year bond yield over the last five years. #ecb #qe @DailyFXTeam https://t.co/6X2LEMtp2z
  • 🇮🇹 Business Confidence (NOV) Actual: 90.2 Expected: 93.5 Previous: 94.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇮🇹 Consumer Confidence (NOV) Actual: 98.1 Expected: 99 Previous: 101.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇹🇼 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q3) Actual: 3.92% Previous: -0.58% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/7gtgUO9NYp
  • 🇮🇹 Business Confidence (NOV) Actual: 90.2 Expected: 93.5 Previous: 95.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • 🇮🇹 Consumer Confidence (NOV) Actual: 98.1 Expected: 99 Previous: 102.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.45%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.39%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/LRbRW0ml57
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Business Confidence (NOV) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 93.5 Previous: 95.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Consumer Confidence (NOV) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 99 Previous: 102.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-27
Euro Capitulation Could Occur Under 12600

Euro Capitulation Could Occur Under 12600

2012-01-09 15:25:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
Share:

FXCM Expo Videos (educational)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

Afternoon Technicals (all charts)

Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)

Morning Comments:

S&P future – The first week of the year left much to be desired following the gap open on 1/3. Ranges were small (less than the 20 day average, which is at its lowest level since July) and rate of change from Wednesday to Friday was .08, 0, and .10. 3 consecutive days of rate of change at less than .1% (absolute value) hasn’t occurred since 2/20/07! The market plunged in the following weeks in what marked the beginning of the end of the carry trade. Last week’s high and low can serve as breakout levels.

USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Has come off of the best levels from Friday after rallying in 5 waves from 9856. This dip should prove corrective and initial support is expected at 9974. The 50%-61.8% retracement could come into play this week at 9922-43.

Euro_Capitulation_Could_Occur_Under_12600_body_usdollar.png, Euro Capitulation Could Occur Under 12600

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

EURUSD – Is approaching the -3rd std. dev band on the daily near 12600. There are also trendlines today at 12590 and 12565 and August 2010 low at 12590. Resistance is 12815/55.

GBPUSD – 5 waves down from 15670 give scope to an eventual break below 15360 and probably a test of the October low at 15271. Additional strength would face resistance at 15525.

AUDUSD – Is testing channel support (off of December lows) and any additional strength would face resistance at 10270-10300. Favor shorts into these levels with a stop above 10380. The next support is 10120 but the near term objective is 10040/60 (former pivot low and Fibonacci).

Euro_Capitulation_Could_Occur_Under_12600_body_audusd.png, Euro Capitulation Could Occur Under 12600

NZDUSD – Has bounced off of trendline support (off of December lows) into former congestion (7850+). Near term pattern is bearish (decline is impulsive from 7907) and weakness is favored towards 7740 and perhaps 7750. Any risk on shorts should be kept to 7910.

USDJPY – Has reversed in the 7720/60 zone cited last week. Expectations remain for fresh all time lows as long as price is below 7830.

USDCAD – Reached and reversed at the trendline that extends off of the November and December highs last night. Still, pattern does remain constructive above 10170 towards the next trendline (off of October and November highs) above 10400 (and the December high at 10423).

Euro_Capitulation_Could_Occur_Under_12600_body_usdcad.png, Euro Capitulation Could Occur Under 12600

USDCHF – Strength has stalled at its highest level since February 2011. A close below 9550 today would trigger a daily key reversal which should not be dismissed given the potential implications from the Hillebrand fiasco.

KEY LEVEL PAIR-CADCHF – Is trading at its highest since April 2011 and faces resistance from congestion from August 2010 to April 2011. A daily key reversal on Friday presents a short opportunity against Friday’s high (9375 – but account for spread if taking this trade). Initial support is 9200 (December high ). I’m targeting 9000 (December low). The chart below is a weekly.

Euro_Capitulation_Could_Occur_Under_12600_body_cadchf.png, Euro Capitulation Could Occur Under 12600

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES