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S&P future – The gap from the 1/3 open has been filled but the first daily candle of the year (small body, upper wick at 2nd std. dev band) leaves the S&P in a vulnerable state. Throw in the statistical significance of the tendency for prices to make a high or low for the entire month on the first day of the month and the short side is that much more attractive with a stop above 1280. Resistance is 1274.75. Downside levels of interest are 1260.75, 1250.75, and 1243. A November-December trendline comes in at about 1232 today and the 20 day average near 1241.
USDOLLAR (Ticker: USDOLLAR): Has traded through the 1/2 high and now faces some congestion from 10000/20. Short term structure is promising with the decline from the December high in 3 waves. We may have the opportunity to buy a dip tomorrow or early next week.
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
EURUSD – Is approaching the -2nd std. dev band on the daily near 12780. The next downside levels would be a trendline at 12680 (-3rd std dev band is at 12650) and August 2010 low at 12590. Resistance is 12850/80.
GBPUSD – The dominant pattern remains the sideways consolidation since 11/25. As such, treat 15670 as a tradeable high (stops above). Resistance is 15535 and 15560. Supports are 15465 and 15430.
AUDUSD – An inside day yesterday has given way to a downside break and focus is on the 61.8%-50% retracement of the rally from the 12/29 low at 10175-10215. The 1/2 low at 10200 is in the middle of this range. The downside is favored against 10340. Shorts were issued last night and this morning via Twitter @JamieSaettele.
NZDUSD – An inside day yesterday has given way to a downside break and focus is on the 61.8%-50% retracement of the rally from the 12/29 low at 7750/80. A trendline off of the December lows is at 7760 today. The 1/2 low at 7740 is also of interest. The downside is favored against 7875.
USDJPY – Expecting resistance at 7720/60. 7720 is the 1/2 high and 38.2% retracement of the drop from 12/23 high. 7760 is the 12/28 low and 61.8% retracement. 7830 is the pivot.
USDCAD – Is currently testing trendline resistance drawn off of the December highs. Exceeding 10200 exposes the 12/29 high at 10270.
USDCHF – Is threatening a break of the December high (9547). Doing so would shift focus to the January 2011 high at 9784. 9450/70 is support.
--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
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