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S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

2012-01-04 14:48:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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SPY (ETF)

Daily Bars

SP_Study_AUDUSD_body_spy.png, S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

On the first trading of the year for equities, the SPY gapped higher at the open 1.8% but closed the day lower than where it opened. Over the last 10 years, there have been 19 instances in which the SPY opened up at least 1.5% and closed lower than it opened. On 13 of those occasions, the SPY closed down the next day an average of 2.96 points (about 30 S&P points). Of the 6 up closes, the average was 1.38 (about 14 S&P points). There are outliers to consider, especially one from October 2008 in which the next day’s loss was 9.83 (nearly 100 S&P points). Still, the evidence is bearish and reward/risk favorable (for bears).

SPX500

Daily Bars

SP_Study_AUDUSD_body_spx500.png, S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

From an EW perspective, yesterday’s rally could complete wave b of B. B waves are typically flats or triangles. Both point lower from here with the distinction being that a flat would take out the November low before yet another rally to a new high (in wave C). There is a count that treats the current move as wave C (probably as a diagonal) but the flat/triangle is more consistent with the data mining.

AUDUSD

240 Minute Bars

SP_Study_AUDUSD_body_audusd.png, S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

If you want a pure risk trade then trade the AUDUSD. Yesterday’s top formed within pips of the December high and a short term channel. There are several possible wave counts from here, including a zigzag from the November low towards 10600 or a flat from the December high towards 9860. The SPY study favors the flat scenario. A drop under 10200 would put bears in control until 9860. Until then, support is 10280 and the upside must be respected.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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