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S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist

FXCM Expo Videos (educational)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

SPY (ETF)

Daily Bars

SP_Study_AUDUSD_body_spy.png, S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

On the first trading of the year for equities, the SPY gapped higher at the open 1.8% but closed the day lower than where it opened. Over the last 10 years, there have been 19 instances in which the SPY opened up at least 1.5% and closed lower than it opened. On 13 of those occasions, the SPY closed down the next day an average of 2.96 points (about 30 S&P points). Of the 6 up closes, the average was 1.38 (about 14 S&P points). There are outliers to consider, especially one from October 2008 in which the next day’s loss was 9.83 (nearly 100 S&P points). Still, the evidence is bearish and reward/risk favorable (for bears).

SPX500

Daily Bars

SP_Study_AUDUSD_body_spx500.png, S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

From an EW perspective, yesterday’s rally could complete wave b of B. B waves are typically flats or triangles. Both point lower from here with the distinction being that a flat would take out the November low before yet another rally to a new high (in wave C). There is a count that treats the current move as wave C (probably as a diagonal) but the flat/triangle is more consistent with the data mining.

AUDUSD

240 Minute Bars

SP_Study_AUDUSD_body_audusd.png, S&P Study and AUDUSD Implications

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

If you want a pure risk trade then trade the AUDUSD. Yesterday’s top formed within pips of the December high and a short term channel. There are several possible wave counts from here, including a zigzag from the November low towards 10600 or a flat from the December high towards 9860. The SPY study favors the flat scenario. A drop under 10200 would put bears in control until 9860. Until then, support is 10280 and the upside must be respected.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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