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Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

2011-12-21 23:47:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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FXCM Expo Videos (educational)

Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators

Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets

SPX500

300 Minute Bars

Santa_Claus_Rally_body_spx500.png, Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

As long as the SPX500 is below 1254.30, respect the potential for weakness below 1200. Several things make me think that we could test 1190 before turning up. We are in a range and closer to the top of the range AND it seems that the masses expect more from this ‘Santa Claus rally’. From an Elliott perspective, the rally from 1205.70 constitutes a flat (3-3-5) within a larger flat from 1272.40. Above 1254.30 negates.

AUDUSD

Daily Bars

Santa_Claus_Rally_body_audusd.png, Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Given the time of year, the AUDUSD range may tighten further still before a more sustained trend takes hold in January. Price is in the middle of a range right now, which is the worst place to establish a trade from a reward/risk perspective. The pattern is constructive for the week as long as the Monday low holds but most action may be complete until mid week next week. Levels to keep an eye on are 9860, 9985, 10025, 10125, 10170, 10220.

NZDUSD

Daily Bars

Santa_Claus_Rally_body_nzdusd.png, Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDUSD is in the same position as the AUDUSD although price did reverse at trendline resistance today. Levels into next week are 7540, 7600, 7650, 7725/40, 7775.

AUDNZD

Daily Bars

Santa_Claus_Rally_body_audnzd.png, Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The AUDNZD carved out a key reversal day last Thursday and a key reversal week last week. Given the potential for a massive head and shoulders top, I like being short against 13275 – downside levels of interest over the next few months are 12940 and 12840. An Elliott wave count is presented below.

AUDNZD

Daily Bars

Santa_Claus_Rally_body_audnzd_1.png, Santa Claus Rally in Stocks May be Complete

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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