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Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

2011-12-15 22:11:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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In General…

Favor ‘risk off’ for Friday and maybe early next week. The USD low this week was on Monday so the other price extreme (USD high) is most likely to occur on Friday (not Thursday as it is now). The AUDUSD is the favored setup at current levels.

S&P (index with o/n fair value)

300 Minute Bars

TestofGaps_body_spx500.png, Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The bounce from former resistance (11/29 high) reversed at former support (12/12 low) and focus remains lower towards the 11/30 gap at 1183.90. This level intersects with the October-November trendline on Tuesday. Exceeding the short term resistance line would require a reassessment.

Euro / US Dollar

60 Minute Bars

TestofGaps_body_eurusd.png, Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I am still looking lower towards the January low at 12873 before a sharper recovery into 13210/80 but today’s inside day does suggest stabilization. Resistance remains 13065-13100. The tendency this week has been for price to top during Europe before selling off.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

300 Minute Bars

TestofGaps_body_usdchf.png, Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The USDCHF carved out a daily key reversal today (new 20 day high, large range, and close below prior close) but price remains supported by Elliott channel support and former congestion from 9340-9390. From an EW perspective, I’d look higher in a 5th wave as long as price is above 9295.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Daily Bars

TestofGaps_body_audusd.png, Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDUSD focus remains on the gap that was left open from the 11/28 open at 9775. This level is reinforced by the October-November trendline. I’m short from yesterday – “I favor shorts towards 9775 but on rallies into 9940/80 with a stop above 10045. I’ll be on the lookout for long setups (opening range setups / key reversals) below 9800 although the NZDUSD might be a better candidate (AUDNZD bearish daily key reversal today).” Given structure at the US close, I am looking for a high in early Asia trade.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Daily Bars

TestofGaps_body_nzdusd.png, Test of Post Thanksgiving USD and S&P Gaps Expected

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The NZDUSD is trying to find an important low. Elliott channel resistance is holding for now and price needs to stay below 7610 in order for bears to remain favored towards the gap left open at 7440. I do expect to test the long side if 7440 is reached and acts as support.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JamieSaettele

To be added to Jamie’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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