News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Dow, Pound-Dollar, BoE Rate Decision, Fed Risk, PMIs Check out my recap of last week and preview of upcoming event risk, plus all the latest forecasts from the @DailyFX team below. Link to Analysis - $GLD $DJI $GBPUSD #Trading
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here:
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) US Dollar Outlook, Key Trend Reversals Playing Out? USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD #USD $USDCAD $AUDUSD $EURUSD $GBPUSD
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here:
Japanese Yen Takes Center Stage as a Top Trade of 2014

Japanese Yen Takes Center Stage as a Top Trade of 2014

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

Summary: The Japanese Yen seems at a potentially critical turning point as it nears significant resistance (USDJPY support). Which way does it break and how might we trade it?

- USDJPY nears a potentially critical turning point at major support

- Our retail forex sentiment data shows a substantial shift in positioning

- The coming weeks may determine whether USDJPY-long remains a top trade of 2014

Japanese Yen at a Potentially Critical Turning Point as USDJPY Near Significant Support

japanese_yen_is_a_top_trade_of_2014_body_Picture_5.png, Japanese Yen Takes Center Stage as a Top Trade of 2014

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop, Prepared by David Rodriguez

Our Senior Strategist accurately called for an important USDJPY pullback when it traded near multi-year highs, and now he highlights a potentially pivotal turning point in the Yen. Put simply, forex market sentiment on the Japanese Yen was at extremes and remains very one-sided. Why does that matter?

Yesterday we pointed out why recent USDJPY moves were so significant, and indeed this remains the pair to watch in the days ahead. If we see a break below key price levels we could see a short-term panic and important USDJPY losses (Japanese Yen gains). One of the most important factors remains stock markets; the USDJPY has traded virtually tick-for-tick with the S&P 500.

japanese_yen_is_a_top_trade_of_2014_body_Picture_6.png, Japanese Yen Takes Center Stage as a Top Trade of 2014

One other important consideration is the significant shift we’ve seen in retail forex positioning. A look at our proprietary retail sentiment data shows big shifts in the Japanese Yen—particularly in the EURJPY pair.

Forex Trading Crowds Now at Biggest Long Position Since EURJPY Bottomed Near ¥119.10

japanese_yen_is_a_top_trade_of_2014_body_Picture_7.png, Japanese Yen Takes Center Stage as a Top Trade of 2014

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop, Prepared by David Rodriguez

What happens next could define Japanese Yen trends through the foreseeable future. And as a long-term JPY bear and US Dollar bull I argued that a USDJPY long position is my favorite trade of 2014. That remains true, but a substantial correction may in fact give me a better opportunity to get long at a lower price.

It will be critical to watch price action in the coming weeks as it could determine trends throughout the rest of the year. Follow any updates on the Japanese Yen and other currencies via this author’s e-mail distribution list.

Forex Correlations Summary

View forex correlations to the S&P 500, S&P Volatility Index (VIX), Crude Oil Futures prices, US 2-Year Treasury Yields, and Spot Gold prices.

japanese_yen_is_a_top_trade_of_2014_body_Picture_8.png, Japanese Yen Takes Center Stage as a Top Trade of 2014

Data source: Bloomberg. Chart source: R SEE GUIDE ON READING THE ABOVE CHART

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for David specializes in automated trading strategies. Find out more about our automated sentiment-based strategies on DailyFX PLUS.

Contact and follow David via Twitter:

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.