News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.35% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.06% Wall Street: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VrybX61UEU
  • British Pound Price Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Poised to Extend Climb - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2021/04/14/British-Pound-Price-Outlook-GBPUSD-GBPJPY-Poised-to-Extend-Climb.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GBP $GBPUSD $GBPJPY https://t.co/rDOIqMJQfk
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DYCLXAFcCr https://t.co/q3hRzYvE7n
  • Despite the rise in US inflation via CPI, the Dollar extended its slide. I'm dubious of the momentum there and the risk on response, but $USDJPY is well positioned for either outcome. Ahead, we have earnings, bank governors and the Senate discussing China https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/14/USDJPY-Reversal-Can-Follow-Risk-and-Yield-Scenarios-Earnings-Next-SPX-Spark.html https://t.co/2esFQsVuvx
  • To be fair, crypto is broadly rising (Bitcoin, Etherium, Litecoin, etc), but Dogecoin is pacing the masses. Perhaps Cuban has finally taken the market influence title from Musk https://t.co/nfjApyXNTT
  • RT @mcuban: FYI, the Mavs sales in @dogecoin have increased 550pct over the past month. We have now sold more than 122k Doge in merchandis…
  • RT @FxWestwater: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: $NZDUSD Unscathed as #RBNZ Holds Course Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/14/New-Zealand-Dollar-Forecast-NZDUSD-Unscathed-as-RBNZ-Holds-Course.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5Qh0nRIKDa
  • The Euro has regained lost ground against its major counterparts recently. Are further gains in the offing or is this just a short-term countertrend correction? EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD key levels. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/BK1ezTva9R https://t.co/JcrxdRvyaX
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.64% Silver: 0.31% Gold: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/VrRa1mL8ge
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/zQkfCDgAJQ
EUR/USD Technical Outlook - Bearish 'Death Cross' Nearing Completion

EUR/USD Technical Outlook - Bearish 'Death Cross' Nearing Completion

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Euro (EUR/USD) Price, News, and Analysis:

  • EUR/USD nudging higher but with little conviction.
  • A negative ‘death cross’ is nearing completion.
How to Trade EUR/USD
How to Trade EUR/USD
Recommended by Nick Cawley
How to Trade EUR/USD
Get My Guide

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the DailyFX Calendar.

EUR/USD is back just below 1.1900 due to both a weaker US dollar and a marginally stronger Euro. After printing a multi-month just above 1.1700 at the end of March, the pair has reversed higher and may soon test a cluster of old highs and moving averages on either side of 1.1950. Above here, four recent highs around 1.1990 block the way to a big figure change and a fresh five-week high.

The three simple moving averages shown on the daily chart are sending out mixed messages with the 20-day sma now looking as though it is supportive for the first time since the start of the year, while the 50- and 200-day smas are more ominous. With the 50-day at 1.1962 and the 200-day at 1.1947, there are just 15 pips stopping the medium-term sma going below the longer-term sma, forming a bearish ‘death cross’. The article Moving Averages Explained for Tradersexplains how moving averages work, while a ‘cross’ hyper-link in section 3 ‘Making use of multiple moving averages’gives a more in-depth look at both the ‘golden cross’ and the ‘death cross’. A series of lower highs from the beginning of the year also remain in place on the daily chart, adding to the negative outlook.

If this cross forms, then EUR/USD could soon give back its recent gains and test 1.1836 before moving back towards the March 31 low at 1.1704. Below here there is little in the way of a re-test of the November 4 low at 1.1602.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Download our new Q2 Euro Forecast
Get My Guide

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (September 2020 – April 7, 2021)

EUR/USD Technical Outlook - Bearish 'Death Cross' Nearing Completion
EUR/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -6% -5%
Weekly -12% 11% 1%
Learn How to Use Sentiment in Your Trading Strategy
Get My Guide

IG Retail trader data show 44.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.25 to 1.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise.Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

The Quiz
Discover what kind of forex trader you are
Start Quiz

What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES