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EUR/USD Technical Outlook - Bearish 'Death Cross' Nearing Completion

EUR/USD Technical Outlook - Bearish 'Death Cross' Nearing Completion

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Euro (EUR/USD) Price, News, and Analysis:

  • EUR/USD nudging higher but with little conviction.
  • A negative ‘death cross’ is nearing completion.
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EUR/USD is back just below 1.1900 due to both a weaker US dollar and a marginally stronger Euro. After printing a multi-month just above 1.1700 at the end of March, the pair has reversed higher and may soon test a cluster of old highs and moving averages on either side of 1.1950. Above here, four recent highs around 1.1990 block the way to a big figure change and a fresh five-week high.

The three simple moving averages shown on the daily chart are sending out mixed messages with the 20-day sma now looking as though it is supportive for the first time since the start of the year, while the 50- and 200-day smas are more ominous. With the 50-day at 1.1962 and the 200-day at 1.1947, there are just 15 pips stopping the medium-term sma going below the longer-term sma, forming a bearish ‘death cross’. The article Moving Averages Explained for Tradersexplains how moving averages work, while a ‘cross’ hyper-link in section 3 ‘Making use of multiple moving averages’gives a more in-depth look at both the ‘golden cross’ and the ‘death cross’. A series of lower highs from the beginning of the year also remain in place on the daily chart, adding to the negative outlook.

If this cross forms, then EUR/USD could soon give back its recent gains and test 1.1836 before moving back towards the March 31 low at 1.1704. Below here there is little in the way of a re-test of the November 4 low at 1.1602.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (September 2020 – April 7, 2021)

EUR/USD Technical Outlook - Bearish 'Death Cross' Nearing Completion
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -6% -5%
Weekly -12% 11% 1%
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IG Retail trader data show 44.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.25 to 1.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise.Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.